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I don't think it's really a story of demographic change over the short timeframe we're talking.  

It plays a role, of course, but if it were about demographics you'd have expected the "blue shift" in AZ to be pretty modest in 2016 than it was.  Instead, it was massive.  I believe California and Texas were the only states that shifted more to the Dems relative to the popular vote, although Georgia was in that ballpark.

This is really an urban/rural and college/non-college story, i think.  We saw signs of it as Obama assembled his coalition As he took states like Virginia and Colorado.  Trump seems to have accelerated those trends, which is why he was able to flip the Midwest (and why Clinton way overperformed a uniform swing in places like AZ/TX/GA).

That all seems poised to continue, but with the addition that Biden seems able to take some of the non-college white vote back that Clinton lost.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:50:06 PM EST
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