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Have to think Alabama is gone.  Trump is leading by 18 points.  The only poll has Tuberville leading by 17 points.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 03:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is looking grim for Doug. But, as things stand now, the Democrats need one more seat in addition to the relatively certain seats from Arizona, Colorado and Maine and they have several shots to get additional seats. North Carolina seems the best bet with Cal Cunningham holding an aggregate lead in likely voters of +3% in the two most recent polls.

Iowa is a tossup per the analysts but the recent polls have Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading incumbent Joni Ernst by .3%. The turnout and the strength of the Trump vote could be the determinants there.

In South Carolina incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham faces a strong challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who is black. The analysts are split between lean Republican and likely Republican. The two polls since August show a tie. Probable advantage is to Graham, but who knows at this point?

Georgia is a mess. There are two US Senate races. One is the regularly scheduled race for the seat currently held by Republican David Perdue. There are only two recent polls and Democrat Jon Ossoff leads David Perdue by about 2 points. Analysts are split between tossup and lean Republican. So who knows?

The second Georgia Senate race is for the seat held by Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in January when Johnny Isakson retired. The election on Nov. 3 will have all candidates, Democratic, Republican and others on the ballot and, unless one gets 50% there will be a runoff in January between the top two. There will be two strong Republican candidates on the ticket, Doug Collins and Kelly Loeffler, though Collins leads in head to head matchups. The two strongest Democrats are Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. No candidate, Republican or Democrat, has broken 30% in the polling. The results of the Nov. 3 election will likely depend more on who drops out than any other factor.

In sum, both Georgia races are mysteries, but one will be solved in November, most likely.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 07:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Colorado seems like as sure a bet as one could make.  Arizona looks highly likely because McSally is the Republicans' answer to Martha Coakley.  

Maine and NC seem to be in pretty good shape.  That's enough to get to 50 assuming Jones loses (which he will barring a complete collapse by Trump).

After that, it gets tough.  Iowa seems likeliest to flip.  Georgia is possible, although I wish to god Abrams had run instead of Ossoff.  Two of the three Dems also need to drop out of the second Georgia race since it's a Jungle Primary.

Kansas, Alaska, Texas and South Carolina seem to have potential (Cornyn and Graham are polling with really weak numbers).

I guess we could get a polling miss and see Bullock win in Montana, but it doesn't look good there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A week later and Graham is actually behind in S.C., even if only by about 2 pts. on average. It will be sweet if HE loses. And Iowa is showing a consistent small lead for Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, averaging ~2.6 pts. and from three quality polling organizations. Even one more Senate seat for the Democrats would make governing easier.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 12:54:00 AM EST
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