Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
It is looking grim for Doug. But, as things stand now, the Democrats need one more seat in addition to the relatively certain seats from Arizona, Colorado and Maine and they have several shots to get additional seats. North Carolina seems the best bet with Cal Cunningham holding an aggregate lead in likely voters of +3% in the two most recent polls.

Iowa is a tossup per the analysts but the recent polls have Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading incumbent Joni Ernst by .3%. The turnout and the strength of the Trump vote could be the determinants there.

In South Carolina incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham faces a strong challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who is black. The analysts are split between lean Republican and likely Republican. The two polls since August show a tie. Probable advantage is to Graham, but who knows at this point?

Georgia is a mess. There are two US Senate races. One is the regularly scheduled race for the seat currently held by Republican David Perdue. There are only two recent polls and Democrat Jon Ossoff leads David Perdue by about 2 points. Analysts are split between tossup and lean Republican. So who knows?

The second Georgia Senate race is for the seat held by Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in January when Johnny Isakson retired. The election on Nov. 3 will have all candidates, Democratic, Republican and others on the ballot and, unless one gets 50% there will be a runoff in January between the top two. There will be two strong Republican candidates on the ticket, Doug Collins and Kelly Loeffler, though Collins leads in head to head matchups. The two strongest Democrats are Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. No candidate, Republican or Democrat, has broken 30% in the polling. The results of the Nov. 3 election will likely depend more on who drops out than any other factor.

In sum, both Georgia races are mysteries, but one will be solved in November, most likely.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 07:47:39 PM EST
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