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So did every other forecaster.  Silver was the one saying Trump had a 30% chance while everybody else was giving him a 1-2% chance.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:21 AM EST
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Silver's model had IIRC a lot of secret sauce. If so we don't know why he had Trump at 30%. Gut feeling? Covering his reputation for the future?

The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:19:16 PM EST
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Bingo! And no way of telling if it's good this time. A lot depends on how man Bernie supporters will stay home and how many will vote Biden (or Trump!).
Of course, with mail-in to a central location who knows what the real vote is?  We got notices in the mail that my wife, I and my brother-in-law have not submitted applications for absentee ballots. I know he did because my wife mailed it. (WE did not apply). He's in a nursing home from an automobile accident, he HAS to vote absentee. I'll bet the records will show that we all did.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:30:52 PM EST
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It didn't have "secret sauce".  He explained it numerous times:

He correctly noted that Clinton's lead wasn't very large, that polls are subject to error, and that there were a ton of undecided and third-party voters -- all adding up to a great deal more uncertainly than (say) 2012.

A candidate leading by 3 points with over 10% of voters undecided is not a 98-99% favorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 11:57:52 AM EST
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Has he published his model?

If so, I must have missed it, but I would be delighted to read it. If not, the model is per definition secret.

by fjallstrom on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM EST
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Nate Silver: Polling analysis

Miscalculation by Democrats in swing states and Trump's Strategy based on data Facebook / Cambridge Analytica ... only Electoral College vote counts.

by Oui on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 02:50:07 PM EST
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