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Silver's model had IIRC a lot of secret sauce. If so we don't know why he had Trump at 30%. Gut feeling? Covering his reputation for the future?

The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:19:16 PM EST
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