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To me, as a very occasional observer of US politics - I sort of lost interest after Trump's win - the most remarkable feature of the 2020 campaign has been its stability: The average of polls has only moved by 1-2% whereas in precious elections swings of over 10% were not uncommon. Apart from one rogue Rasmussen poll (quelle surprise) which had Trump +1% nationally, all Polls are in Bidens favour, generally in the 5-9% range, average c. 7%.

This indicates to me that this election is not about relatively volatile things like perceptions of campaign performance, performance in office, national conventions, policy platforms, but about something semi-permanent: Tribal identification. People don't change their tribal identification much, so this election is about maximising the turnout of your tribe, not wooing the undecideds.

But something has been changing in the battleground states. Whereas Hillary was gradually sliding in the polls in these states as the election neared, and 42 days before polling day, she was only up 1.3% in those states. Biden, by way of contrast has held steady, and is now up 4.1% in those states; a net improvement on Hillary's performance of 2.8%, 42 days out from election day. This is in stark contrast to July/August, when Biden was doing worse than Hillary in the battleground states at that stage.

Even Florida has consistently had a 60% chance of a Biden Victory. Of course a few Biden blunders or a poor performance in the debates could still change things, but barring a Biden melt-down, vast and successful voter suppression by Trump, or outright counting fraud, this election is Biden's to lose.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 04:03:14 PM EST
I think it is early to reach conclusions. The supreme court nomination is going to be a chance for both sides to appeal to their bases. The October Surprise (typically an international incident) has not been played yet. The stock market has not collapsed. Schools are just now returning to in-person teaching, so it will be another month before the COVID-19 cases skyrocket. The hurricane season is only half over and we are already on Greek names--and nobody has said what names come after them.
by asdf on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 05:44:56 PM EST
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Trump's children?
by Bernard on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 08:33:27 PM EST
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There aren't enough of them. How about Boris' children?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 08:54:06 PM EST
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But it has just come out in a long NYT Sunday article that Trump has shown what should be gifts to Ivanka as business expenses. And Don Jr. is a perpetual gaffe machine. Add to that Trump having shown as a business expense what other members of his family, like Eric, have repeatedly called 'a family retreat' and things could get interesting:
'The estate is "really our compound," Eric Trump told the magazine then, recalling his summers and weekends there with Donald Trump Jr. when they rode ATVs and went fishing. "It was home base for us for a long, long time," Eric said, "until I finally bought another house and moved out." ' Kids say the darndest things!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 01:16:24 AM EST
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43 days out and the signs are the Democrats will keep the House and maybe add some seats, Biden is as sure as anything is in politics to win the presidency,  and the odds are beginning to turn for the Senate to flip.

National polling has consistently shown Biden leading.

In short: this isn't 2016 and Biden is not Clinton.

And, interestingly:

... there's potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue and the Affordable Care Act to drive a wedge in Trump's coalition. In 2016, much of his support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked Trump's rhetoric on trade and immigration, but consider themselves pro-choice -- especially non--evangelical, blue-collar women. And, these voters remain up for grabs in 2020.

Have to see how this turns out over the next couple of weeks.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:27:51 PM EST
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His appointment of an Illinois Catholic woman might draw blue collar Catholic women. While not necessarily anti-abortion, these women don't like seeing an all or mostly Protestant Male court.
If she is fanatically Catholic, i.e. a female Catholic Pence, then yes, they will be repelled unless they too are fanatics in which case Trump had them anyway.

American Catholics, even Irish Catholics, are not the same as Ireland's Catholics. And more often than not have intermarried with Italian and Polish Catholics who do not have the same anti-sex indoctrination. I remember my Polish-Italian buddy and I in High School would filch our condoms from his father's ample supply. And they were staunch Catholics, just didn't want a dozen kids. IIRC a poll said 80% of American Catholics practiced non-rhythm birth control.

by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Sep 25th, 2020 at 10:32:49 PM EST
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'An easy selection': Trump settled quickly on Barrett
Following Trump's announcement, the confirmation process will move to the Senate. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing the week of Oct. 12. A Supreme Court confirmation hearing typically lasts three to four days. Then, Senate Republicans are aiming to confirm the nominee before the election, although Democrats are doing everything they can to delay the process with procedural moves.
no more LBJ logs to roll over their "colleagues", eh
An ABC/Washington Post poll released Friday showed the majority of Americans believe the Senate should not confirm a new justice until after the election, when the winner of the presidential race is clear. Only 38 percent of Americans surveyed said the confirmation should happen before Nov. 3.
#FIFTHWAVE #WomensMarch #MeToo #TimesUp suicide note developing ...
by Cat on Sat Sep 26th, 2020 at 05:50:39 PM EST
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Meh! It's not even tradition, much less law.

62% of Americans probably believe space aliens caused COVID. Ninety percent are sheep parroting what they heard on the soi-disant "news".

by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:16:31 PM EST
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Amy Coney Barrett, a proven conservative with a compelling personal story
Barrett, the mother of seven children and a former law clerk to the late right-wing beacon Justice Antonin Scalia, Barrett, now 48, was a finalist for the Supreme Court spot that went to Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 [...]

Advocates on the far right have backed her possible nomination because of her writings on faith and the law. Religious conservatives were especially energized for Barrett when, during the 2017 confirmation hearing for her current judgeship, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California suggested to her that the "dogma lives loudly within you."

May become the judicial Margy Thatcher.

Trump is not triangulating, but going for the jugular as Republicans tend to do. That might be faintly attractive for presumably outraged female voters.

by das monde on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 10:11:48 AM EST
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According to the Marquette Law School poll couple of weeks ago, about half of Republican and Democrats though next Supreme Court appointment as important and only third of independents.

And this is with the high-pitched screaming on the issues in MSM. If the media was more reflecting on the interests of the population and not creating issues, I'd guess even bigger majority of USians would reply "who cares"...

It's almost like the general population instinctively knows that the kind of retroactive constitutionality checks used in common law countries are slow, cumbersome and leave much leeway for legislators and courts to misbehave. Or that the SCOTUS hasn't been that good in upholding the constitution in the last decades, anyway.

by pelgus on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 10:50:48 AM EST
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I agree that far too many citizens in nominally 'democratic' countries take their form of government for granted. In the USA we are having a bit of a wake-up call. A significant portion of the electorate is becoming increasingly alarmed that what they thought "couldn't happen here" is well on the way to actually happening. If even a few percent of eligible voters who would likely not have voted in this election are indeed alarmed and turn out to vote to preserve at least the form of our government that will change the outcome.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 12:24:14 AM EST
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It will be fascinating to see what happens when those "presumably outraged female voters" find out that not only is abortion illegal in their red states, but so is contraception.
by asdf on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:13:45 PM EST
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by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 02:56:34 PM EST
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And they can no longer own real property in their own name

And they can no longer have their own bank accounts.

And they can no longer have a credit card in their own name.

And they have no legal right to assume contractual obligations, e.g., get a bank loan.

etc. etc. etc.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 03:26:27 PM EST
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That can be taken as anti-Catholic and might draw even more Catholics to support her. Like Hillary's "deplorables" clinging to "guns and religion".
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:19:28 PM EST
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Outraged women run for office

"[M]any GOP women felt that those women in those movements do not speak for them," said Deckman, citing both the Women's March and the #MeToo movement as events that may have sparked more GOP women to run, telling me that some Republicans may be running to "put out a counternarrative of what women's interests actually entail."


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 10:41:56 AM EST
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The Republican women I see running in here in Illinois are anti-abortion, anti-tax, and anti-mask.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 03:25:15 AM EST
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