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To me, as a very occasional observer of US politics - I sort of lost interest after Trump's win - the most remarkable feature of the 2020 campaign has been its stability: The average of polls has only moved by 1-2% whereas in precious elections swings of over 10% were not uncommon. Apart from one rogue Rasmussen poll (quelle surprise) which had Trump +1% nationally, all Polls are in Bidens favour, generally in the 5-9% range, average c. 7%.

This indicates to me that this election is not about relatively volatile things like perceptions of campaign performance, performance in office, national conventions, policy platforms, but about something semi-permanent: Tribal identification. People don't change their tribal identification much, so this election is about maximising the turnout of your tribe, not wooing the undecideds.

But something has been changing in the battleground states. Whereas Hillary was gradually sliding in the polls in these states as the election neared, and 42 days before polling day, she was only up 1.3% in those states. Biden, by way of contrast has held steady, and is now up 4.1% in those states; a net improvement on Hillary's performance of 2.8%, 42 days out from election day. This is in stark contrast to July/August, when Biden was doing worse than Hillary in the battleground states at that stage.

Even Florida has consistently had a 60% chance of a Biden Victory. Of course a few Biden blunders or a poor performance in the debates could still change things, but barring a Biden melt-down, vast and successful voter suppression by Trump, or outright counting fraud, this election is Biden's to lose.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 04:03:14 PM EST

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