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Arizona is a puzzle. Controlled by the GOP for half a century, Biden polling really well, Trump campaign "temporarily" pulling out.
by asdf on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 04:41:45 PM EST
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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 04:59:53 PM EST
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I don't think it's really a story of demographic change over the short timeframe we're talking.  

It plays a role, of course, but if it were about demographics you'd have expected the "blue shift" in AZ to be pretty modest in 2016 than it was.  Instead, it was massive.  I believe California and Texas were the only states that shifted more to the Dems relative to the popular vote, although Georgia was in that ballpark.

This is really an urban/rural and college/non-college story, i think.  We saw signs of it as Obama assembled his coalition As he took states like Virginia and Colorado.  Trump seems to have accelerated those trends, which is why he was able to flip the Midwest (and why Clinton way overperformed a uniform swing in places like AZ/TX/GA).

That all seems poised to continue, but with the addition that Biden seems able to take some of the non-college white vote back that Clinton lost.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:50:06 PM EST
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In Colorado it is the urban/rural thing. The population of Denver and the other Front Range cities is exploding. It is a solidly blue state at the moment, and the one GOP senator is possibly the most at-risk of them all.
by asdf on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:44:31 PM EST
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Yeah, I've basically assumed Hickenlooper would win that seat pretty easily the whole time.

Virginia and Colorado are the two states that Generic Republican could at least potentially compete in but are simply not going to go for Trump or a Trumpy GOP.  

Pretty diverse, pretty urbanized and pretty well-educated, so just generally bad demos for Trump.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 10:50:28 AM EST
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In addition to the rapid demographic change Democrats have been aggressively organizing and registering voters among the Latinx and Native American populations. Few of these potential voters had bothered to register before 2008. It seemed there was no point, given how right wing the state had been, (except for Pima County and Tuscon). Thus, with Trump's harsh anti-immigrant and specifically anti Mexican rhetoric and the growing number of potential unregistered voters, a latent potential became actualized, transforming Arizona politics in the process.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 03:04:22 PM EST
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In addition many of the immigrants from California and other US states brought their values with them, thus making the state more liberal.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 03:08:33 PM EST
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The story of this election is we're seeing the ending days of the Southern Strategy as the number of old white ignorant hick Evangelical racists is dropping as they croak.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 05:02:56 PM EST
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I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of young hicks.
by asdf on Thu Sep 10th, 2020 at 06:07:15 PM EST
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Yes but not near as many.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 02:11:03 AM EST
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There's a good chunk, but as a share of the generational population they're pretty small.  (The Millennials seem to be more liberal than the oncoming Zoomers, but the Zoomers are still pretty liberal, it seems, so that trend is roughly continuing.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:23:27 PM EST
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I think the story of the election so far is really that Donald Trump is pretty unpopular, as he's basically been from Day 1.  Most voters seem tired of him, and they hear his opinions and reflexively take the opposite positions.

Meanwhile, they all know who Joe Biden is because they've been watching him on teevee since the Cretaceous Period, and they see him and go, "Yeah, okay, he's fine."  His being boring as hell is probably a feature rather than a bug.

We still have a long way to go though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 11:13:37 AM EST
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I'm still not sure how much I buy what possibly seems like Biden opening up a huge lead in Arizona, but given Trump's pause there and some of the high-quality public polls, I assume Trump's campaign is seeing the same thing.

Biden is seemingly doing very well with suburbanites and voters aged 65+ relative to how Dems usually perform, so doing well in Arizona wouldn't be altogether surprising.  (It makes the Florida polling mildly surprising, but I think the close race here has a lot to do with Cuban voters.)

I think I have seen enough to say Arizona's more likely to flip than North Carolina, where the race has stayed stubbornly close and reads as essentially a toss-up in the high-quality polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:53:40 AM EST
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Of course, I say the Florida polling is mildly surprising and then Monmouth (one of the best pollsters in the US) comes out with a Florida poll that has Biden leading by...pretty much exactly what you'd expect given the national polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:10:34 PM EST
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What about the Florida Atlantic poll that shows a tie? What do you know about FAU polling?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 02:02:11 AM EST
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I don't know much about their polling.  Generally I read the college polls but don't put too much stock in ones that aren't Monmouth, Marquette, Marist, Siena or (their inability to poll Florida aside) Quinnipiac.

It looks to me like Biden's up 7 or 8 nationally, and Florida is astonishingly reliable at being roughly R+3 against the popular vote.  Not that we couldn't see that change obviously, but until it does, that's my assumption.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 10:40:23 AM EST
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