Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Trump thinks he won.

538/ABC poll found:

Debate watchers were pretty decisive in their verdict of last night's performances: Only about one-third said Trump's performance was "somewhat good" or "very good," and 50 percent said it was "very poor."


Most respondents started out firmly in either Biden or Trump's camp, and the debate didn't change that: In fact, very few people changed their minds at all about how likely they were to vote for each candidate.

Trump desperately needed to change the sitz im leben of the 2020 elections, not only for himself but for the Republican Party.  He didn't.  Every single one of the Cook Political Report's - a highly touted US political analyst group - rating changes have been in favor of the Democrats.  The most recent example was both Iowa and Ohio deemed Toss Up from Solid Republican earlier in the year.

While there's no evidence Trump will eke out a win in 2020 there wasn't any evidence Trump was going to win in 2016.  Countering a surprise is the fact the polling average on Oct. 1 2016 had Clinton with 43.5% and Trump with 40.3% while today Biden leads 50.5% to 42.9%. Trump managed, with some help from the FBI, to close the gap over the month, pulled out an additional 2 million votes over Romney's 2012 total, and had ~80,000 voters in the right places in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  He'll have to do something like this year and without a key 2016 voting block: suburban white women, who deserted the GOP in 2018.

Can Trump get re-elected.  Yes, there's no Law of the Universe saying nay.  Is it likely he'll be re-elected?  With what we now as of 30 Sept. 2020: no.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Sep 30th, 2020 at 08:55:15 PM EST

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