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It didn't have "secret sauce".  He explained it numerous times:

He correctly noted that Clinton's lead wasn't very large, that polls are subject to error, and that there were a ton of undecided and third-party voters -- all adding up to a great deal more uncertainly than (say) 2012.

A candidate leading by 3 points with over 10% of voters undecided is not a 98-99% favorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 11:57:52 AM EST
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Has he published his model?

If so, I must have missed it, but I would be delighted to read it. If not, the model is per definition secret.

by fjallstrom on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM EST
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Nate Silver: Polling analysis

Miscalculation by Democrats in swing states and Trump's Strategy based on data Facebook / Cambridge Analytica ... only Electoral College vote counts.

by Oui on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 02:50:07 PM EST
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