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However I believe the EU will allow the Irish government to institute those controls at Irish sea and air ports as a much more feasible option than trying to put customs posts on 300 roads passing through the 500KM land border.
The Irish government could also institute a "trusted trader" scheme within Ireland whereby Irish firms, importing through/from N.Ireland, declare any goods of British origin in their accounts in the same way as they do their VAT returns. The vast majority of Irish imports from Britain are by large supermarket chains and other large businesses with robust internal controls. Guinness already has customs officials on site 24/7 to ensure alcohol production is properly taxed.
This would not prevent private individuals, sole traders and small businesses loading up their cars/vans with goods in N. Ireland and driving them across the border for their own personal or small business use. The Irish government could institute the occasional mobile spot check of large Vans/trucks near the border to eliminate gross abuses, but basically the quantities would be immaterial in an EU context and restricted to Ireland.
From a political and economic point of view, this would be a little compensation for private individuals and small businesses/sole traders for the costs that Brexit will impose in other ways, and perhaps also re-balance the competitive advantage of (e.g.) small shops vs global multinational supermarket chains. Any such solutions would be temporary, pending a UK/EU trade deal, and failing that until there is a more formal re-unification of Ireland, politically and/or economically.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Any such solutions would be temporary, pending a UK/EU trade deal, and failing that until there is a more formal re-unification of Ireland, politically and/or economically.
Pending a UK/EU trade deal....
Just how likely is a deal after this? If Johnson goes through with his "special and detailed" changes how much would you trust him in negotiations 2021?
Re-unification sounds more likely.
Of course the EU would also suffer some damage, but it might take the view that this needs to be resolved quickly, one way or the other. German car exports can always make up lost sales at a later stage. EU farmers could be cushioned for lost income through the CAP.
If Boris tries to hold out, many UK firms will close permanently and irreversibly. If anything, Covid-19 has taught EU governments that drastic actions can and sometimes must be taken, and the public will accept them if the rationale is strong enough.
Ireland will be most directly in the firing line but it has such a long and painful history with Britain that most people will accept considerable sacrifices rather than capitulate (again) to the British. Boris doesn't know what he is stirring up if this turns bad. The nationalists won't surrender.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Instinctively I see the UK as having historical and manufacturing expertise concentrated around the internal combustion engine, rather than the wider car-manufacturing industry, am I wrong?
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
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