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It all depends on how ruthlessly the EU responds. If the EU takes the view that a short sharp shock is needed to bring the UK to ts senses and avoid a long drawn out and damaging conflict, it could literally stop all except the most vital EU imports at Calais and shut down half the UK export economy.

Of course the EU would also suffer some damage, but it might take the view that this needs to be resolved quickly, one way or the other. German car exports can always make up lost sales at a later stage. EU farmers could be cushioned for lost income through the CAP.

If Boris tries to hold out, many UK firms will close permanently and irreversibly. If anything, Covid-19 has taught EU governments that drastic actions can and sometimes must be taken, and the public will accept them if the rationale is strong enough.

Ireland will be most directly in the firing line but it has such a long and painful history with Britain that most people will accept considerable sacrifices rather than capitulate (again) to the British. Boris doesn't know what he is stirring up if this turns bad. The nationalists won't surrender.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 10th, 2020 at 08:13:39 PM EST
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