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There's no doubt the SNP would win, but implementation would be difficult for both sides.

Aside from trying to secure a land border and set up an independent economy, one huge complication from England's POV is that Scotland is home to the UK's nuclear deterrent. England can't let that go, so it's likely troops would be sent in to secure it. That takes everyone into very difficult territory.

I suspect behind the scenes NI, Ireland, Scotland, and perhaps Wales are discussing some form of Celtic Alliance. It would be much harder for England to move against a union of countries which would likely have some form of EU backing. That's possibly the ideal outcome for everyone except the English.

But England is also split. The bigger towns and cities lean progressive, and anti-establishment sentiment is up for grabs by either end of the spectrum in the North and parts of the West Country. Only the Midlands, East Anglia, and some of the southern shires are wholly dedicated to Tory Brexitism.

It's a very volatile and dangerous situation, not least because the current Westminster government is spectacularly and blatantly corrupt and self-serving, as well as astoundingly childish, petulantly aggressive, and dysfunctionally stupid.

None of the major English parties are being run by adults. The Greens and the SNP both have adult leaders and there are some good MPs in Labour. But the top of greasy pole is populated exclusively by chancers, timeservers, and Establishment seat warmers. They either have no idea how fragile the entire country is now, or they simply don't care.

I'm going to be hugely surprised if the UK makes it to 2024 without a major convulsive rupture. And I wouldn't be entirely astounded if it happens before the end of this year.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jan 22nd, 2021 at 02:56:15 PM EST
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The placidity, timidity, and establishmentarianism of the average Brit never fails to astound me. They seem to accept all sorts of outrages as normal. The blatant cronyism, corruption, and incompetence of their betters never seems to bother them too much.

Many actively support Boris and his cronies as being made of "the right stuff". Everyone else is being extremist or inconsiderate. The Queen is untouchable, as are many of the established institutions of the state. All are obviously "the best in the world" compared to those horrible foreign countries.

So no, I don't see a revolution any time soon, despite a precipitous decline which they seem barely aware of - a bit like the frog who was boiled alive because the water temperature only went up a little at a time. Instead they appear to live in a sea of WWII victories, 1966 World Cup wins, and Beatles nostalgia - back in the day when England was best in the world at something.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 22nd, 2021 at 04:35:34 PM EST
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Also there is the "overtaken by events" factor. Planning for an independence referendum a decade from now assumes that the UK situation remains stable during that decade. It's easy to think of scenarios where something changes the UK's position relative to the EU's economic setup, or the US's defense setup, or the oil or wind energy market, or fishing, etc., that could change the tradeoffs.

I would propose that at the moment, the biggest issue in play is the short-term results of Brexit. Collapse of the London financial industry, disruption of the auto industry, electrical power marketplace difficulties, serious food shortages, a tourist industry collapse, or any of dozens of other potential Brexit-related difficulties could pose much bigger problems than Scotland or Ireland.

by asdf on Sun Jan 24th, 2021 at 05:42:54 PM EST
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