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There's no doubt the SNP would win, but implementation would be difficult for both sides.

Aside from trying to secure a land border and set up an independent economy, one huge complication from England's POV is that Scotland is home to the UK's nuclear deterrent. England can't let that go, so it's likely troops would be sent in to secure it. That takes everyone into very difficult territory.

I suspect behind the scenes NI, Ireland, Scotland, and perhaps Wales are discussing some form of Celtic Alliance. It would be much harder for England to move against a union of countries which would likely have some form of EU backing. That's possibly the ideal outcome for everyone except the English.

But England is also split. The bigger towns and cities lean progressive, and anti-establishment sentiment is up for grabs by either end of the spectrum in the North and parts of the West Country. Only the Midlands, East Anglia, and some of the southern shires are wholly dedicated to Tory Brexitism.

It's a very volatile and dangerous situation, not least because the current Westminster government is spectacularly and blatantly corrupt and self-serving, as well as astoundingly childish, petulantly aggressive, and dysfunctionally stupid.

None of the major English parties are being run by adults. The Greens and the SNP both have adult leaders and there are some good MPs in Labour. But the top of greasy pole is populated exclusively by chancers, timeservers, and Establishment seat warmers. They either have no idea how fragile the entire country is now, or they simply don't care.

I'm going to be hugely surprised if the UK makes it to 2024 without a major convulsive rupture. And I wouldn't be entirely astounded if it happens before the end of this year.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jan 22nd, 2021 at 02:56:15 PM EST
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