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Hispanics now slightly outnumber Blacks among eligible voters and also turned out in high numbers. This was generally favorable to the Democrats except in Florida which has the greatest number of Cuban Americans and also large numbers of immigrants from Venezuela and Columbia, many of whom have a decided aversion to anything left of Batista or Somoza. Hispanics gave Nevada to Sanders in the primaries this year.
Asians accounted for about 5% of the electorate and voted heavily Democratic. And, for the first time, Native Americans, ~6% of the population, were the margin of victory in Arizona and New Mexico. Expect their participation to increase as politics is an existential matter for them, a fact to which they have awakened.
Voters over 65 favored the Democrats this year. Republican rhetoric regarding Medicare and Social Security was a wake up call with them.
So there is both promise and peril for 2022 and 2024. If Biden does manage to get the pandemic under control, increase (deficit) spending for renewable energy infrastructure and other steps to mitigate climate change, manages to increase taxes on those with incomes over $200K/year, expands medical coverage, even if it is via an expanded version of Obamacare, gets desperately needed financial support to small business and some recurring stimulus checks to all, Democrats just might increase their numbers in 2022. They might also manage to get statehood for D.C. and even Puerto Rico enacted.
The Republicans are now saddled with their Trump base, Abrams seems likely to become Governor in Georgia in 2022, Texas continues to turn purple, if not blue, with the odious Ted Cruz getting calls to resign from the Houston Chronicle and, perhaps Beto O'Rourke looking for a rematch in 2024. Without Georgia and Texas the Republican Party is doomed to be a rural white minority party forever. And Lisa Murkowski might switch her party affiliation to Independent and caucus with the Democrats, giving the Democrats a 51 seat majority without the vote of VP Harris.
Or the Democrats could be so respecting of traditions in D.C. that they get nothing accomplished and lose the House in 2022.
Promise and peril. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Would like to remark that both AfricanAmericans and the Hispanics are not progressive but right of center in the Democratic party.
The 8 years of Bush should show overal the Hispanic vote was Conservative based on religious values - Catholic faith - and pro-live. The Florida Cubans are motivated as you stated.
The Afro-Americans vote for the Democrats because he Republicans as a whole are racist what exploded under Trump due to his dog-whistles and White empowerment. Is endemic problem in the Red States and is part of their culture. It's carried over to their off-spring and enforced by their version of Bible and preachers.
The Bernie Sanders movement was stopped in 2016 by the DNC and establishment ... in 2020 by Rep. Jim Clyburn in SC primary.
Black At The Ballot
On the issues Sanders vs Biden.
Although I am a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders on the issues and his European values, I do realize only a right of center Joe Biden could gain the votes to beat a corrupt demagogue like Trump. America has lost its way with guns and violence part of the election equation. A moderate voice will not be heard.
But there are also age differences in the views of Hispanics on these issues, with second and third generation younger Hispanics having much more nuanced veiws. This dynamic also favors the views of the young over time. The same is true for other ethnicities. Time may be on our side. A lot depends on how successful Biden and Congress can be between now and 2022.
I full well recognize that Biden is far more centrist than what we really need, but he is what we have and, to his credit, he realizes that a lot of progressive goals have to be implemented, not out of ideology, but because that is what the times and circumstances require. If Biden can manage to extend medical insurance coverage to more residents it does not matter that his approach will cost significantly more than would Medicare for All. It would help if more doctors, nurses and other medical professionals were available and that can and should be addressed. The need for a single payer can be addressed by his successor, if that be a Democrat.
A similar logic applies to cutting back on military expenditures - which MUST NOT be viewed as 'saving the taxpayers money', because, if those savings are not applied to other areas they will be contractionary and will lead to another recession. Overall spending by the government MUST go up. A good compromise might involve shifting money from acquisition of obsolete hardware to further research via DARPA and increased government support to university research. It would also help to shift much of the development to newer, more innovative and efficient companies and cut back spending via Boeing, Martin Marietta, Raytheon, etc.
The two most vital tasks are dealing effectively with the pandemic and getting the economy growing at a three percent or greater rate per year. That will end the oppressive burden of austerity which is driving so many to extremism. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
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