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Solid demographic information on the composition of the US electorate by age group is not yet available for the 2020 election. Pew has only forecasts from 2019 at this time. But Generation Z accounted for 10% of the eligible voters, they turned out in record numbers and their numbers will increase by 2022. They are much more tolerant of different ethnicities than even the Millennials.

Hispanics now slightly outnumber Blacks among eligible voters and also turned out in high numbers. This was generally favorable to the Democrats except in Florida which has the greatest number of Cuban Americans and also large numbers of immigrants from Venezuela and Columbia, many of whom have a decided aversion to anything left of Batista or Somoza. Hispanics gave Nevada to Sanders in the primaries this year.

Asians accounted for about 5% of the electorate and voted heavily Democratic. And, for the first time, Native Americans, ~6% of the population, were the margin of victory in Arizona and New Mexico. Expect their participation to increase as politics is an existential matter for them, a fact to which they have awakened.

Voters over 65 favored the Democrats this year. Republican rhetoric regarding Medicare and Social Security was a wake up call with them.

So there is both promise and peril for 2022 and 2024. If Biden does manage to get the pandemic under control, increase (deficit) spending for renewable energy infrastructure and other steps to mitigate climate change, manages to increase taxes on those with incomes over $200K/year, expands medical coverage, even if it is via an expanded version of Obamacare, gets desperately needed financial support to small business and some recurring stimulus checks to all, Democrats just might increase their numbers in 2022. They might also manage to get statehood for D.C. and even Puerto Rico enacted.

The Republicans are now saddled with their Trump base, Abrams seems likely to become Governor in Georgia in 2022, Texas continues to turn purple, if not blue, with the odious Ted Cruz getting calls to resign from the Houston Chronicle and, perhaps Beto O'Rourke looking for a rematch in 2024. Without Georgia and Texas the Republican Party is doomed to be a rural white minority party forever. And Lisa Murkowski might switch her party affiliation to Independent and caucus with the Democrats, giving the Democrats a 51 seat majority without the vote of VP Harris.

Or the Democrats could be so respecting of traditions in D.C. that they get nothing accomplished and lose the House in 2022.

Promise and peril.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 03:08:30 AM EST
Great analysis!

Would like to remark that both AfricanAmericans and the Hispanics are not progressive but right of center in the Democratic party.

The 8 years of Bush should show overal the Hispanic vote was Conservative based on religious values - Catholic faith - and pro-live. The Florida Cubans are motivated as you stated.

The Afro-Americans vote for the Democrats because he Republicans as a whole are racist what exploded under Trump due to his dog-whistles and White empowerment. Is endemic problem in the Red States and is part of their culture. It's carried over to their off-spring and enforced by their version of Bible and preachers.

The Bernie Sanders movement was stopped in 2016 by the DNC and establishment ... in 2020 by Rep. Jim Clyburn in SC primary.

Black At The Ballot

On the issues Sanders vs Biden.

Although I am a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders on the issues and his European values, I do realize only a right of center Joe Biden could gain the votes to beat a corrupt demagogue like Trump. America has lost its way with guns and violence part of the election equation. A moderate voice will not be heard.

by Oui on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 08:56:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the Hispanic vote is hardly monolithic. After I posted the comment I realized that I should have also discussed the Rio Grande Valley where there is a split between those who don't want a wall on their property  and who do want freer access to Mexico for shopping and for visiting family and those Hispanics who resent illegals and fear inundation by an open border. I believe that the right candidates can finesse this dilemma with a compromise: no wall but also no free immigration and no demonization of Hispanic immigrants.

But there are also age differences in the views of Hispanics on these issues, with second and third generation younger Hispanics having much more nuanced veiws. This dynamic also favors the views of the young over time. The same is true for other ethnicities. Time may be on our side. A lot depends on how successful Biden and Congress can be between now and 2022.

I full well recognize that Biden is far more centrist than what we really need, but he is what we have and, to his credit, he realizes that a lot of progressive goals have to be implemented, not out of ideology, but because that is what the times and circumstances require. If Biden can manage to extend medical insurance coverage to more residents it does not matter that his approach will cost significantly more than would Medicare for All. It would help if more doctors, nurses and other medical professionals were available and that can and should be addressed. The need for a single payer can be addressed by his successor, if that be a Democrat.

A similar logic applies to cutting back on military expenditures - which MUST NOT be viewed as 'saving the taxpayers money', because, if those savings are not applied to other areas they will be contractionary and will lead to another recession. Overall spending by the government MUST go up. A good compromise might involve shifting money from acquisition of obsolete hardware to  further research via DARPA and increased government support to university research. It would also help to shift much of the development to newer, more innovative and efficient companies and cut back spending via Boeing, Martin Marietta, Raytheon, etc.  

The two most vital tasks are dealing effectively with the pandemic and getting the economy growing at a three percent or greater rate per year. That will end the oppressive burden of austerity which is driving so many to extremism.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 04:18:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some thoughts on diversifying military expenditure:

  1. Make veterans facilities available to Medicare recipients where civil facilities are lacking and staff up accordingly.

  2. Declare drug dependency a national emergency and use military facilities and staff to provide treatment centres

  3. Declare US's lack of renewable energy self-sufficiency a national security emergency and mandate the military to address it by building wind and solar farms on their lands were suitable and by/lease other lands as required using military resources and skills.

  4. Declare the US's infrastructure deficit a national emergency and use military resources/skills to project manage remedial projects in cooperation with local communities/contractors.

  5. Declare a climate change emergency and use military resources to project manage defensive infrastructural projects like sea wall, irrigation projects, flood plain management systems etc.

  6. Promote hurricane/storm/earthquake resistant building standards and energy positive housing and office building standards at all military facilities to promote security and resilience and reduce carbon footprints to zero or positive where possible.

Basically use military budgets to promote positive peacetime public goods and to set standards for innovation in solar, wind, working and shelter building standards...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 04:52:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US Navy just released a new strategy document. Basically the plan is to gear up for re-fighting some combination of WW2 and the Cold War.
by asdf on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 08:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generals and Admirals are always trying to re- fight the last war What I am proposing requires civilian (and Presidential) leadership. Re-assign 10% of military budgets to the purposes I propose. After that declare it's use it or lose it...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2021 at 07:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great comment, Worthy of a diary!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 10:12:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I will think about it.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 04:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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