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Solid demographic information on the composition of the US electorate by age group is not yet available for the 2020 election. Pew has only forecasts from 2019 at this time. But Generation Z accounted for 10% of the eligible voters, they turned out in record numbers and their numbers will increase by 2022. They are much more tolerant of different ethnicities than even the Millennials.

Hispanics now slightly outnumber Blacks among eligible voters and also turned out in high numbers. This was generally favorable to the Democrats except in Florida which has the greatest number of Cuban Americans and also large numbers of immigrants from Venezuela and Columbia, many of whom have a decided aversion to anything left of Batista or Somoza. Hispanics gave Nevada to Sanders in the primaries this year.

Asians accounted for about 5% of the electorate and voted heavily Democratic. And, for the first time, Native Americans, ~6% of the population, were the margin of victory in Arizona and New Mexico. Expect their participation to increase as politics is an existential matter for them, a fact to which they have awakened.

Voters over 65 favored the Democrats this year. Republican rhetoric regarding Medicare and Social Security was a wake up call with them.

So there is both promise and peril for 2022 and 2024. If Biden does manage to get the pandemic under control, increase (deficit) spending for renewable energy infrastructure and other steps to mitigate climate change, manages to increase taxes on those with incomes over $200K/year, expands medical coverage, even if it is via an expanded version of Obamacare, gets desperately needed financial support to small business and some recurring stimulus checks to all, Democrats just might increase their numbers in 2022. They might also manage to get statehood for D.C. and even Puerto Rico enacted.

The Republicans are now saddled with their Trump base, Abrams seems likely to become Governor in Georgia in 2022, Texas continues to turn purple, if not blue, with the odious Ted Cruz getting calls to resign from the Houston Chronicle and, perhaps Beto O'Rourke looking for a rematch in 2024. Without Georgia and Texas the Republican Party is doomed to be a rural white minority party forever. And Lisa Murkowski might switch her party affiliation to Independent and caucus with the Democrats, giving the Democrats a 51 seat majority without the vote of VP Harris.

Or the Democrats could be so respecting of traditions in D.C. that they get nothing accomplished and lose the House in 2022.

Promise and peril.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2021 at 03:08:30 AM EST

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