Where would you get Omicron morbidity curves? It's been around for barely a week. If I'm not completely talking out of my ass this curve is based on the FT's version, though I haven't looked up what their specific method was for determining the start of a wave.

Graph is to illustrate the rapid increase of each variant ...

Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: a new chapter in the COVID-19 pandemic | The Lancet |

The first sequenced omicron case was reported from Botswana on Nov 11, 2021, and a few days later another sequenced case was reported from Hong Kong in a traveller from South Africa.

Several sequences from South Africa followed, after initial identification that the new variant was associated with an S-gene target failure on a specific PCR assay because of a 69-70del deletion, similar to that observed with the alpha variant.

The earliest known case of omicron in South Africa was a patient diagnosed with COVID-19 on Nov 9, 2021, although it is probable that there were unidentified cases in several countries across the world before then. In South Africa, the mean number of 280 COVID-19 cases per day in the week before the detection of omicron increased to 800 cases per day in the following week, partly attributed to increased surveillance.

COVID-19 cases are increasing rapidly in the Gauteng province of South Africa; the early doubling time in the fourth wave is higher than that of the previous three waves (figure).

Omicron vs. Delta: Comparing COVID's most worrisome variants

Emergence

Delta: First identified in India in December 2020, Delta is presumed to have come from someone whose immune system was suppressed, perhaps due to medications or an illness such as HIV/AIDS.

Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada

The period from February to June 2021 was one during which initial wild-type SARS-CoV-2 strains were supplanted in Ontario, Canada, first by variants of concern (VOC) with the N501Y mutation (Alpha/B1.1.17, Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1 variants), and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The increased transmissibility of these VOCs has been documented but data for increased virulence is limited. We used Ontario's COVID-19 case data to evaluate the virulence of these VOCs compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 infections, as measured by risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death.

Deaths are limited as gratitude for many patients already vaccinated before being infected by the Delta variant. However as I stated above, for the elderly in nursing homes, once infected by the Delta variant to mortality rate is above 20%. The Omicron mutant will be devastating for the unvaccinated group of the population: toddlers and young children under 12 years old.

'Sapere aude'