Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
As of Dec 5, 2021 there's little research being published.  What papers are out merely say, "it's concerning."  

Anecdotal reports and vacuous inanities from the Infotainment Mediums should be treated with extreme skepticism.  When they are right it's either by happenstance or the fact a stopped 12 hour clock is accurate twice a day.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 5th, 2021 at 04:29:55 PM EST
Haven't you heard it's mIlD.

by generic on Sun Dec 5th, 2021 at 04:56:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Delta Plus variant

The Delta/ B.1.617.2 genome has 13 mutations (15 or 17 according to some sources, depending on whether more common mutations are included) which produce alterations in the amino-acid sequences of the proteins it encodes.

Press release: Vaccines highly effective against B.1.617.2 variant after 2 doses | UK Gov - May 22, 2021 |

New study by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of the COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India.

The study found that, for the period from 5 April to 16 May:

  • the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
  • 2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant compared to 66% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Dec 5th, 2021 at 06:06:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
13 mutations, huh.

Let's recap evolution of broadcast "threat" levels: about one week after South African beta collided with UK alpha, two weeks into First World BioNTech-Pfizer/Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine launch, and six months before 2021's delta-branded "wave" eliminated the 2020 variants of interest and concern.

ecdc | Rapid increase of a SARS-CoV-2 varient with multiple spike protein mutations observed in the United Kingdom, 20 Dec 2020

Over the last few weeks, the United Kingdom (UK) has faced a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in South East England, leading to enhanced epidemiological and virological investigations. Analysis of viral genome sequence data identified a large proportion of cases belonged to a new single pylogenetic cluster. The new variant is defined by [9] spike protein mutations (deletion 69-70, deletion 144, N501Y, 4570D, D614G, P681H, T716I, 6982A, D1118H) present as well as mutations in other genomic regions. While it is known and expected that virus constantly change through mutation leading to the emergence of new variants, preliminary analysis in the UK suggests that this variant is significantly more transmissible than previously circulating variants, with an estimated potential to increase the reproductive number (R) by 0.4 or greater with an estimated increased transmissibility of up to 70%. This new variant has emerged at a time of the year when there has traditionally been increased family and social mixing. There is no indication at this point of increased infection severity associated with the new variant. A few cases with the new variant have to date been reported by Denmark and the Netherlands and, according to media reports, in Belgium.
Nextstrain.org classification, nomenclature, and their consequences, 6 Jan 2021
Finally, there is the issue where if 20A.EU1 did expand to >20% global frequency, it would be confusing to relabel it from 20A.EU1 to, for example, 20E.

Consequently, we propose an updated [nomenclature] strategy, where major (year-letter) clades are named when any of the following criteria are hit:

  1. A clade reaches >20% global frequency for 2 or more months
  2. A clade reaches >30% regional frequency for 2 or more months
  3. A VOC (`variant of concern') is recognized (applies currently to 501Y.V1 and 501Y.V220B , GISAID clade GR, lineage B.1.1.7. Phylogenetic analysis (Figure 4) reveals that there are very few intermediary forms between this variant and other circulating viruses reported to GISAID. The cluster differs by 29 nucleotide substitutions from the original Wuhan strain ["pre-alpha"], which is higher than current molecular clock estimates of around two substitutions per genome per month
What these facts communicate to me is not perfect information, but a formula for scheduling phase changes to government notices of PI + NPI rationale.

Moreover, given last weeks announcement of brand "omicron"--while C.1.2 (May 2020) doubtless slowly mutated as it circulated worldwide by commercial transit. Patent "outbreak" headlines and talking points a triggered by foregone conclusions to limited laboratory "detection" established place: global frequency >20%--absolute count over time--not newly "discovered" cases.

What irks me isn't so much errors in pseudo-scientific theory and practice , but the arrogance of First World "leadership" in pursuit of totally perverse domination.

by Cat on Mon Dec 6th, 2021 at 01:26:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scientists explore role of immunocompromised in generating Covid-19 variants wtaf
Who is the Omicron variant's patient zero? Detected for ["]the first time["] in South Africa, the variant formally known as B.1.1.529 sparked immediate concern in the international community. Indeed, Omicron's unprecedented number of mutations - more than 30 compared with the original strain of this coronavirus - present two potential threats: that it could be particularly contagious and that it might prove resistant to existing ["]vaccines["].

While governments around the world have set out to bolster restrictions to stem Omicron's spread, scientists have set about tracing the origins of the "super mutant" variant to understand how it came into being.

Among the theories put forward, some researchers are looking at mutations that appeared in one infected patient with a compromised immune system. Over the course of several months, they have studied the effect of a possible link between the emergence of variants of the highest concern [VOHC] and immune systems weakened in patients who are, for example, suffering from [CHF, COPD, diabetes I-III, herpes I-IV, MS, malaria, TB, obesity, etc], cancers [chemo drugs], waiting for an organ transplant [ACE inhibitors] or living with untreated HIV [?!]...

and there she blows ...
It is not the first time that South Africa has detected a new Covid-19 variant before anywhere else. Prior to the Omicron variant, two others had been dubbed "South African" variants before those names were changed; first, the Beta variant and then C.1.2.
They can't keep their stories straight.
"But that can be explained, first of all, by the fact that the country conducts a lot of sequencing, which is what enables it to identify variants on its soil," Maréchal explained. "It doesn't necessarily mean that the patient zero (of the Omicron variant) is in South Africa."
by Cat on Mon Dec 6th, 2021 at 01:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
China sticks to strict anti-virus policy as Omicron rages on across world
China has not detected such cases so far except in Hong Kong. Its health authority said the country will stick to its current anti-COVID strategy of preventing imported cases and a domestic resurgence, noting that such an approach is also effective against Omicron. "No matter how the virus mutates, it is still the novel coronavirus," said Zhang Wenhong, head of the Center for Infectious Diseases at the Shanghai-based Huashan Hospital of Fudan University.
All the local clustered cases in the COVID-19 resurgence since mid-October in China originated from overseas. The resurgence has spread to more than 20 provincial-level regions at its peak.

When dealing with these imported Delta variant cases, most regions managed to contain the outbreak within an incubation period of about 14 days. Aiming to contain an outbreak within an incubation period, relevant Chinese agencies have been making full use of the "golden period," the first 24 hours of a discovered case, to find those who were in close contact, isolate potentially infected individuals before the virus spreads, or before the infected person can transmit the virus.
Immediately after the three cases were reported, authorities there activated an emergency response. The local government ordered epidemiological investigators to arrive at the scene within two hours, complete the core investigations within four hours, and finish the epidemiological reports within 24 hours.

by Cat on Mon Dec 6th, 2021 at 02:14:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyway the first thing you can figure out is how fast the stuff spreads so plots like this probably aren't complete ass pulls.

But anything about severity is stage two:

Wouldn't want to make the Dow cry by closing airports.

by generic on Sun Dec 5th, 2021 at 06:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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