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Omicron could cause tens of thousands of deaths in England, study says
The Omicron variant could cause tens of thousands of deaths in England by the end of April if additional virus restrictions are not imposed, new modelling suggests.
less than 510,000
Researchers said the new variant, which is expected to be more transmissible, could cause 24,000 deaths by 30 April 2022 in the most optimistic scenario and nearly 75,000 deaths in the most pessimistic scenario.
NHS Website Crashes Over Huge Demand for COVID-19[sic] Booster Jabs After 1st Omicron Death Confirmed
by Cat on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 06:41:33 PM EST
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Mortality rate will be quite low ... the unvaccinated will be bothered by the infection and will be independent on age, from the very young >2 years. In the Netherlands once again the nursing homes are left unprotected and the government reaction to adding booster jabs and preparation for Omicron variant is running weeks late. Thousands extra have already died since the Summer, these deaths will not be  registered as Covid deaths.

More worrisome are the long term effects of both the Covid-19 illness and the vaccines. Two children died while participating in sports ... one from a bleeding on the brain an another from heart failure 😞

In a  parochial primary school in England two children died unexpectedly. My fear is this will be more common as both the illness and vaccine cause complications on a small scale, but won't go unnoticed.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 07:35:44 PM EST
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Mortality rate will be quite low
Why? We did get full court press around the idea that Omicron was "mild" after the initial panic, but there was clearly no data to back this up. The typical way from the first cough to the mortuary is about 20 days. There are two obvious effects that would make a new variant appear more mild at first: If a lot of people who would have shrugged off an infection in earlier versions now get mild symptoms you change the denominator. Yes, a smaller ratio of people get severe illness, but the overall number of people who get severely ill or die could still be larger compared to earlier variants.
Two, the people who spread the virus over the whole population are usually not the most vulnerable and only a few iterations after the first outbreak will you see a large number of vulnerable people get into contact with the virus.

They did the exact same bullshit when Delta broke.

by generic on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 07:55:34 PM EST
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"larger than" is a pretty high hurdle to clear unless NHS services and treatment plans have significantly deteriorated since ... the summer delta "surge."

I stopped following the "surge" of NHS service and equipment complaints (illustrated with corridor triage gurneys) last spring, because I gave up trying to decode Guardian headlines.

Have hospital capacity and clinical prognosis improved with treatment protocol over the period? I hesitate to assume that they have, simply because the presses aren't bragging about it.

by Cat on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 09:29:02 PM EST
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From the earliest I have written about the Delta variant, it was clear this wasn't a mild version but more contagious and troublesome.

Reproduction factor 2.0 - highest since Feb. 2020 | July 13, 2021 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 10:32:16 PM EST
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It's been known for some time asymptomatic cases can nevertheless cause serious heart damage leading to the little tykes dropping dead from myocardial infarction.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 08:50:29 PM EST
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