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Mortality rate will be quite low
Why? We did get full court press around the idea that Omicron was "mild" after the initial panic, but there was clearly no data to back this up. The typical way from the first cough to the mortuary is about 20 days. There are two obvious effects that would make a new variant appear more mild at first: If a lot of people who would have shrugged off an infection in earlier versions now get mild symptoms you change the denominator. Yes, a smaller ratio of people get severe illness, but the overall number of people who get severely ill or die could still be larger compared to earlier variants.
Two, the people who spread the virus over the whole population are usually not the most vulnerable and only a few iterations after the first outbreak will you see a large number of vulnerable people get into contact with the virus.

They did the exact same bullshit when Delta broke.

by generic on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 07:55:34 PM EST
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"larger than" is a pretty high hurdle to clear unless NHS services and treatment plans have significantly deteriorated since ... the summer delta "surge."

I stopped following the "surge" of NHS service and equipment complaints (illustrated with corridor triage gurneys) last spring, because I gave up trying to decode Guardian headlines.

Have hospital capacity and clinical prognosis improved with treatment protocol over the period? I hesitate to assume that they have, simply because the presses aren't bragging about it.

by Cat on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 09:29:02 PM EST
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From the earliest I have written about the Delta variant, it was clear this wasn't a mild version but more contagious and troublesome.

Reproduction factor 2.0 - highest since Feb. 2020 | July 13, 2021 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 13th, 2021 at 10:32:16 PM EST
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