AFAIK, Russia provides 40% of the NG Europe uses (100% for some countries and 1% for some) and 30% of the crude. So EU is pretty dependent and can't find replacement energy within a decade or so - if at all.

I don't see a war in Ukraine possible, unless Ukraine does something very, very stupid (which is always a possibility).

Russia has nothing to gain but a lot to loose in that conflict, while it does have some "red lines". Considering that Putin got USA administration talking about Minks Accords again, I would expect slow turn towards de-escalation in Ukraine.

On the other hand, if the "security co-operation" doesn't advance on a minimum pace Russia expects, there will be actions that put pressure on USA to come to the table. Not shooting was actions, but "freedom of navigation" passages in gulf of Mexico etc. A pair of Tu-160 doing patrols along the coast from Seattle to Los Angeles.

Short range nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad and Belarus. Sale of modern weapons to Iran. The list is endless, and Russia has total control of escalation and pressure at the moment. It would be much easier to actually sit down and negotiate with Russia than wait for the next move. And next. And next. But I guess the "collective West" is captured by it's own propaganda for now: "Putin understands only toughness", "Putin wants to recreate Soviet Union", "NATO doesn't threaten anyone" etc ad nauseam.