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However in order assuage unionist fears and reduce the risk of violence, the Irish government also agrees other concessions, e.g. Ireland becomes a member of the Commonwealth, changes its flag and anthem, and guarantees a minimum level of subvention to the N. I. Executive which results in an increased tax burden in the south.
A recent opinion poll in the south revealed these to be unpopular concessions, although there was majority support for unionist participation in the Dublin government and increased British Irish links. But what happens if the south rejects re-unification on this basis? N. Ireland could be left in limbo wanted by neither Ireland or Britain on the terms available.
There is some support for an independent N. Ireland as a Plan B scenario, mainly among unionists determined to avoid a united Ireland at all costs. It is difficult to see N. Ireland surviving without subvention from somewhere however. 12 Billion P.a. for less than 2 Million people is over 6,000 p.a.for every man, woman, and child. The entire health service budget for N. Ireland is c. 7 Billion, to put the scale of the subvention into perspective.
Unionists might then have to go cap in hand to someone, anyone, to bail them out. Not a very strong bargaining position especially as N. Ireland has only been guaranteed EU membership as part of a united Ireland. That scenario might concentrate a few minds in due course, but as usual, unionists tend not to think more than one step ahead, and even that very badly. They have poisoned the well with just about everybody, and any outbreaks of loyalist violence will only make matters worse.
It would of course be a huge burden for Ireland to take on as well, but Ireland doesn't support a large armed forces with nuclear deterrent, NATO, and all the accoutrements of post imperial Britain. Long term, there is no reason why N. Ireland couldn't become as successful and self-sustaining as the south, if under similar governance.
The real question is how the northern deficit will be funded in the interim, and without a transitionary agreement with Britain, some funding from the EU, and a lot of economic growth in the interim, it is difficult to see how that could work. Even Germany struggled with the costs of German re-unification for many years. Answers on a post card, please. Index of Frank's Diaries
Much more than the South Koreans, the ROI can afford to be less compromising. Commonwealth? Come on! If they want dual citizenship then maybe there should be double state financing. Time, economics, demographics is playing in their favor - NI may fall into their hands like a ripe apple. Furthermore, if the border is open, peace is maintained, economic ties are ever closer, then why even bother? We may see the day where even Sinn Fein doesn't make reunification (at all cost) a priority anymore. Assuming they will be in charge for a longer period.
(As an aside, my own idea for a North Korea 'policy' involves the South getting its own nuclear(-equivalent) strategic deterrent and then sitting down for peace talks where both sides recognize each other as legitimate Korean states and change their constitutions accordingly. And then the door is open for eventual reunification if someday both sides find it in their interest. Perhaps that's the lesson of Germany: no proper reunification without proper separation.)
Schengen is toast!
Vagueness helps to propel things along. It's a political catalyst. The hump you have to get over is smaller. Brexit, reunifications, etc. Buy now pay later. Which is why I wouldn't want to be too specific if I were a nationalist gunning for a border poll. Schengen is toast!
If I remember correctly form Late Victorian Holocausts, India was on paper an economic basket case during the colonial era. The real wealth was extracted trough economic regulations that made sure englishmen and English companies made bank, and very little stayed in India.
So short term, North Ireland probably needs those 12 Billion P.a. to clear the budget, but even in the middle term this might shift if less money is then extracted to England (or any of its many banking islands), but stays in the community and can be taxed. And in the longer term, well the republic seems to being much better now then under English rule.
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