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Germany has enough domestic problems ... failure with East Germany, the rise of AfD in politics and society, the split between CDU and CSU. After Merkel who will take leadership in the EU? France? Spain? Italy? What's left Poland, Hungary, Greece ... The disunion of the E27 will have priority in Brussels, the Brexit deal is done on paper and the competition will be fierce.

The Biden administration will have a difficult time with the UK-EU break-up. Maidan Joe will lead an aggressive policy towards Moscow which continues to divide Europe. Biden appears to leave much of the Trump foreign policy in place and is bound by Middle East (new) allies and a State of Israel emboldened by four years Trump. This policy is strongly tied to Congress in a Cold War footing. B-52s will be filling the skies and fleet manoeuvres near China to keep sending a message.

There is a new resident in the White House, but he too will be bound by an AmericaFirst filter for domestic success heading into crucial 2022 midterms. The vaccine rollout in the EU will have no political consequences as it did with the US presidential election last fall. Voter attention will be the economy, jobs and getting freedom back. Solidarity is history ... tough time for Greens and climate policy. Hope Brussels can make a difference.

by Oui on Sun Mar 7th, 2021 at 05:17:39 PM EST
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