Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
No, this doesn't need armies to resolve, just some diplomatic resolve. Ireland and the EU don't have much leverage over what happens in N. Ireland because it is under UK sovereignty. Nobody disputes this as the matter was settled under the Good Friday Agreement whereby it takes a 50%+1 to transfer Sovereignty from Britain to Ireland.

We're not there yet, and it is doubtful if a majority in Ireland would want sovereignty over the north while a very large minority are adamantly opposed. What we need is a less binary solution, and this is where the EU came in as an over-arching constitutional structure the large majority could accept.

Brexit has changed all that and we are back to binary solutions in the minds of many. But the EU does have huge control and leverage over what happens in Calais and over "equivalence" in services and in lots of other areas the UK wants cooperation and support from the EU.

This is where the Johnson/Frost strategy is so incredibly short-sighted. The crowing over vaccine procurement has created mortal enemies and I doubt Denis Staunton, the IT London correspondent is up to speed on the change of sentiment in Brussels.

The next step I expect is for Maroš Šefčovič to announce he has appointed some civil service flunky unpopular elsewhere to take his place as co-chairman of the joint UK-EU monitoring committee and direct counterpart to Lord Frost. It made sense for a Commission Vice-President to be involved when Gove was his counterpart, as Gove is effectively deputy Prime Minister.

No doubt the UK will complain that the EU is appointing yet another unelected official to a key role to which the EU will respond by pointing towards Lord Frost...

The Joint Committee will then become a shitshow with the Commission official saying "non" until such time as the UK withdraws all threats of unilateral action. Disputes will be escalated to to Gove/Šefčovič level and vd Leyen will only get involved with Boris whenever a new deal is agreed.

But the real action will be in Calais and on equivalence for services. The next Biden intervention will not be on N. Ireland, but on UK/EU relations which will have deteriorated so much that they have imperilled NATO and western alliance cohesion on a host of global issues.  Watch this space.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 6th, 2021 at 11:18:35 AM EST
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thats a good point about replacing the Minister with an obdurate official tasked with simply refusing everything. It'd be a mirror for Frost to shout at.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Mar 6th, 2021 at 03:07:01 PM EST
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There was a German official who ran the show for Juncker and didn't approve of VD Leyen and didn't make it easy for her transition team. She shafted him to some non-job in Austria probably setting standards for Cuckoo clocks etc.. But he was very much feared in his day. Sounds the sort of guy who could smile sweetly at Arlene and ask "now what was your name again?"

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 6th, 2021 at 03:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Foreplay Brexit Referendum

Rebuffing Cameron, Merkel sticks to Juncker for top EU job | Reuters - June 10, 2014 |

Jean-Claude Juncker promoted German aide Martin Selmayr to top EU post

The Year 2014 was a hellish year across Europe with global repercussions.... Kiev Maiden Revolt - Sevastopol revanche - hostilities and downing MH-17 - USIL establishes caliphate in Raqqa - Cameron stands alone with Rutte ... a pivotal ending for the EU and unity. Tough to recover, may continu slide downwards due to wind in the sails for populist leaders.

Division East-West and New-Old Europe. The US, Russia, UK and Israel seek advantage in wrecking the economic might of the EU.

by Oui on Sat Mar 6th, 2021 at 05:22:17 PM EST
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Ah yes, our old friend Martin Selmayr nicknamed "the monster" would be just the man for the job!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 6th, 2021 at 06:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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