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Poll shows Irish support unification but don't want to pay for it
DUBLIN - Citizens of the Republic of Ireland will happily take Northern Ireland off Britain's hands - but only if they don't have to pay the bill, a new poll reveals.  

After a century of partition, two-thirds of people in the Republic support unification of their island, according to the poll published Saturday in the Irish Independent.

[...]

However, Saturday's results show 44 percent of people in Northern Ireland want to stay in the U.K., compared to 35 percent who want to leave.  

In the south, support for unification is conditioned by who pays. Fifty-four percent of Irish Republic voters would reject unity if it hikes their tax bills, according to the survey, which was conducted by the polling firm Kantar.

Only one in eight would vote for unity if the handover required the Republic to take on Britain's full costs of subsidizing Northern Ireland.  

by Bernard on Sun May 2nd, 2021 at 03:01:48 PM EST
What if the taxes in the Republic aren't affected, but the standard of living is?
by asdf on Sun May 2nd, 2021 at 03:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would anyone in the south(other than extreme nationalists, idealists, and dreamers) vote for a united Ireland if it was to cost the island a net €10-15 Billion p.a.?

The notion that a united Ireland might be coming into view is predicated on:

  1. The UK disintegrating with a vote for Scottish Independence

  2. The post Brexit UK economy declining and with the UK government no longer able or prepared to sub-vent either Scotland or N. Ireland.

  3. A continuing demographic shift both North and South. (Younger voters are much more supportive of a united Ireland).

All three are likely to increase in probability the longer referenda are delayed. Sinn Féin posturing about a referendum now is just that - posturing. The wiser counsel is to play the long game. Also if either Scotland or N. Ireland are to leave the UK, the longer they wait, the better the deal they could negotiate with Westminster.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun May 2nd, 2021 at 04:57:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although the exact extent of the liabilities that a united Ireland would create for Ireland is being increasingly questioned and I have questioned it myself here.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 3rd, 2021 at 12:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I wrote before,  subsidizing the sectarian lifestyle doesn't come cheap. And I understand it's not only the oversized security apparatus, but an extra number of civil services jobs and also additional subsidies for businesses who open an office in Belfast rather than, say, Birmingham. Take these incentives away and the economy will degrade rapidly: war is particularly expensive if you have to pay for it with your own money.
by Bernard on Mon May 3rd, 2021 at 03:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have commented on the article linked to above - in reply to another commentator - as follows:

I wrote my thesis, predicting the imminent end of Apartheid for economic reasons in 1988, before Mandela's release, and while PM De Klerk was still viewed as an irredentist pro-apartheid hardliner. The costs of Apartheid had simply begun to outweigh the benefits, even for a majority of the White community.

Where I predicted violent resistance was from the military, farming and civil service sectors, as their livelihoods were, in large measure, still dependent on the maintenance of Apartheid (which required a huge military/bureaucratic apparatus to keep in place). I argued that a UN or US peace keeping force might be required for a transitionary period to prevent violent slaughter.

What I didn't adequately predict was the degree to which Mandela - still then seen by whites as a terrorist - would develop into an outstanding statesman who gained the trust and respect of all of SA's racial communities. As a direct consequence the transition was largely peaceful, and no external peace keeping force was required.

The SA economy grew again, and a large black middle class developed adding to the stability of the new dispensation. Sadly much of that progress has been dissipated since by corruption, crime and poor leadership once Mandela left the stage. But my point is that with good leadership, violence is not inevitable, even when a radical transformation of a state and society is taking place.

I would suggest to you that that is the route Ireland should plan to take - reconciliation, inclusion,and societal transformation north and south. Nobody wants a repeat of the bloody suppression which characterised much of NI history. The question is whether people of Mandela or Hume's stature will emerge to lead the transition process.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 3rd, 2021 at 09:00:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're even more of an incurable optimist than I am. 😊

In the election of 1994, the ANC got a clear mandate with 62.6% of the vote and 252 seats in a 400 seat parliament.

The NI situation is a religious conflict centuries old. As I understand it, the division is carried over from father to son. There is no peace but a truce. I haven't seen much of a reconciliation and the two camps were quite ready to and capable of confrontation recently. Same location as history dictates. First feat would be to "tear down that wall" and symbol of division. That would be a start for reconciliations and conversation between parties. Downing Street with Tory leadership won't be much of any help. Perhaps under leadership of an Irish-American? A long process that will take years.

by Oui on Mon May 3rd, 2021 at 09:53:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All I'm saying is that widespread violence is not inevitable or unavoidable, but that that requires a quality of leadership not yet in evidence, to put it mildly...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 4th, 2021 at 09:09:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but highly likely.  

The same ethnic culture of Protestant Northern Ireland produces the Ku Klux Klan here in the US.  And like the Klan the UVF, etc., are intolerant bigots who will resort to violence when their world is challenged.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 4th, 2021 at 05:23:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush tells GOP it can't win anything with appeal to 'White Anglo-Saxon Protestantism'

Because the U.S. is a two-party system its form of democracy functions - though barely - due to their Constitutions of 1787. The Brits should be quite jealous with their one-party system of governing the Empire. Go BoJo go!

The catalyst for Magna Carta was the tyrannical rule of King John and, in particular, his imposition of arbitrary taxes upon the barons.

In 800 years not much has changed ... somewhere around 1773 King George lost a promising colony due to taxes and the revolt of the Boston Tea Party. The ghost of the Tea Party still roams the countryside and a revolt is always imminent as the militia are well armed.

by Oui on Tue May 4th, 2021 at 06:31:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You could have (and still can) say the same about Afrikaaner Calvinists -  (with whom some unionists closely identify) - many threatened widespread violence, but in the event it didn't amount to much, and ended up being less than the routine violence that Apartheid visited upon blacks.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 4th, 2021 at 10:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Wed May 5th, 2021 at 09:38:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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