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If he is alive and not in prison I think it's a sure bet Trump will run again in 2024.  He has everything to gain and nothing to lose.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 03:33:42 PM EST
But it will be harder for him to win again in '24.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 03:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Win the nomination or win the office?

I think he would be a shoo-in for the first and I can't poo-poo his chance at the second.  The man got 74 million votes.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 03:41:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why can't he run from prison?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 04:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US doesn't have one presidential election.  We have 50. The states determine eligibility and many deny convicted felons the right to run for public office.  Thus he wouldn't be on the ballot in those states and in the highly unlikely event he won the popular vote, somehow, he still wouldn't get the Electoral Votes from those states.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 04:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can certainly deny Trump the right to vote. As for running: there is nothing about felons in the Constitution. Nothing has changed since Debs' time? (Beyond the fact that Trump won't come even close to getting a plurality of the Jewish vote....)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 04:46:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Between the Creel Committee on Public Information and the ascending J. Edgar Hover the progressives in the Democratic Party were pretty much driven out. The most Progressive thing Wilson did was to sign the Federal Reserve Act. The rest of his term in office was largely an eight year serial disaster.

The Committee on Public Safety turned public opinion strongly against Germans, including German Americans, and the Red Scare after WW I, along with the rise of the KKK took care of the Blacks and Jews. Wilson's dismissive attitude towards women alienated the Suffragettes and the imprisonment of Debs further sealed the deal with Socialists.

So there was no need for legislation about running from jail when the most prominent jail-bird was a socialist.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 06:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The states determine who can vote.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Apr 6th, 2021 at 06:02:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think by 2024 Trump will be out of prison (presidents are not convicted in the US) and rich (rich people get all the breaks in the US and can easily stay rich). Alive and well enough to run for president? Well that is the question. Also a relevant question for Biden. And if Biden steps down the obvious move for the establishment faction is to install Harris who in 2020 dropped out of the primary after poll numbers deflated.

I think you are right about the economy being the deciding factor. And Biden has done more then I expected, even while suffering some self-inflicted damages from the 1400USD checks instead of 2000USD and not whipping for 15USD minimum wage. The question is if it will be enough, for example when eviction moratoriums run out.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 7th, 2021 at 11:49:07 AM EST
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Presidents have not been convicted when they should have been. And there is a general disposition not to criminalize politics. But Trump is different and there is also widespread acknowledgement of that. No former president has so flagrantly broken the law to his own financial benefit while in office and no previous president has ever incited an insurrection against his own government. There are a number of Republicans/former Republicans to argue in favor of a conviction and popular sentiment is turning against the admiration of rich scoundrels. It is not for nothing that there are several criminal investigations of Trump currently underway. By the time these investigations come to trial I would place the odds of a conviction from at least at one in ten and possibly as high as one in two.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 7th, 2021 at 03:34:40 PM EST
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