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I tend to agree with you except for one thing, which is that it is important to not assume stability of the party platforms. The GOP is turning itself into the working class party, and the democrats are not exactly the most enthusiastic supporters of traditional blue-collar labor union activism. But everything is fluid and could change in six months.

I would say that the political scientists and their poll analysis programmers are working overtime to figure out how they can position their bosses to win in each upcoming election. Trump was/is an outlier because of his "I don't need no experts" approach, but I think he is out of the picture practically speaking.

There's lots of attention paid to a handful of loud mouths in both parties, but there are still probably more than 500 reps and senators who are mostly operating using the traditional methods. My bet is that US politics will continue to be divided almost exactly 50:50--because if it is not divided like that and you are on the low side, then your analyst is not doing a good job in finding a platform plank you can change to edge up your count.
 

by asdf on Mon Apr 5th, 2021 at 07:51:06 PM EST

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