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I think by 2024 Trump will be out of prison (presidents are not convicted in the US) and rich (rich people get all the breaks in the US and can easily stay rich). Alive and well enough to run for president? Well that is the question. Also a relevant question for Biden. And if Biden steps down the obvious move for the establishment faction is to install Harris who in 2020 dropped out of the primary after poll numbers deflated.

I think you are right about the economy being the deciding factor. And Biden has done more then I expected, even while suffering some self-inflicted damages from the 1400USD checks instead of 2000USD and not whipping for 15USD minimum wage. The question is if it will be enough, for example when eviction moratoriums run out.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 7th, 2021 at 11:49:07 AM EST
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Presidents have not been convicted when they should have been. And there is a general disposition not to criminalize politics. But Trump is different and there is also widespread acknowledgement of that. No former president has so flagrantly broken the law to his own financial benefit while in office and no previous president has ever incited an insurrection against his own government. There are a number of Republicans/former Republicans to argue in favor of a conviction and popular sentiment is turning against the admiration of rich scoundrels. It is not for nothing that there are several criminal investigations of Trump currently underway. By the time these investigations come to trial I would place the odds of a conviction from at least at one in ten and possibly as high as one in two.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 7th, 2021 at 03:34:40 PM EST
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