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I think the ideal scenario for Dems is that Trump is damaged by legal actions, age, ad ennui; but not enough to deny him the GOP nomination. He will wreck havoc with GOP candidates in both 2022 and 2024 being forced to declare either for or against him. Those who declare against will lose his base in the primary and general, and those who declare for will lose any claims to moderation and lose what remains of the moderate conservative GOP and swing vote.

While each election in each state is different, and the votes lost through declaring for or against Trump very variable, the marginal effect could be to lose the GOP an awful lot of seats in Governorships, congress and down ticket races.

The real question is whether Dems will seize defeat from the jaws of victory by scoring a few own goals of their own, as governing parties tend to do. At the moment Biden's popularity seems to be holding steady at 54/40 approval and so long as his team sustain legislative/reforming/activist momentum all could be well.

But the moment they lose their mojo through  legislative defeat, division or scandal (manufactured or real) his game could be up. Once his numbers start going south all those Dems in conservative leaning marginals will start looking after their own welfare and vote against reforming legislation dividing the party and rendering it useless.

Biden still has some working class/union street creds which nearly all other prominent Dems lack, and the contrast with Trump in his handling of the pandemic and economic recovery will give him some credit in the bank which should last thru' 2022, but I doubt it will count for much in 2024 when people look to a future under an ailing President.

So it's how Dems handle the responsibilities of office, maintain their momentum, and manage any transition post Biden that will be the key. Fear of Trump will act as a unifying force for only so long, and cannot last forever. What are they going to do about growing inequality, the urban/rural divide, racial tensions, climate change and environmental degradation?

A little bit of everything may not be enough to cut it in the longer term. Does Kamala Harris have a vision and the ability to project it convincingly to enough people? Can divisive social issues be neutralised? Will SCOTUS wreck havoc with any reforming agenda? Will big business call the shots and destroy Dem credibility? It will take no mean skill to keep the show on the road.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 7th, 2021 at 12:40:01 PM EST

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