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I suspect the effect of Biden's Covid relief package and (even more so) of his infrastructure bill (if passed) will be to turbocharge the economy for 2 years at least and ensure a vict,ry in the mid-terms and some governorships for the Dems  and improve the 2024 playing field for them.

Whether this positive healthcare/economic boost lasts until 2024 is less certain, and also, by then the country may have tired of having an octogenarian President. If Biden doesn't run again I suspect Kamala Harris will win the nomination but it is doubtful she be able to achieve the same broad coalition Biden achieved and so the GOP could do well in the Presidential.

However if Trump runs and wins the GOP nomination (as I expect he will) a Trump/Harris contest will set up the same dynamic as the Trump/Clinton contest, only with less apathy on the Democratic side. With Trump controlling roughly half the GOP electorate every GOP candidate is going to have to declare for or against Trump at the risk of losing up to half his base.

As always, it is events that will determine the fate of a sitting President/Vice-President, and if Biden/Harris handle any crises well, they could set up a period of Dem Hegemony for some years to come.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 04:41:24 PM EST

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