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In the opinion polls you linked it looks very much as TUV being the beneficiaries of DUPs decline. My impression is that on a scale from hard line unionism to reality ignoring crazies the hard line unionist parties places UUP, DUP and TUV in that order.

So is the transfer of votes from DUP to TUV a protest or a genuin transfer because of DUPs failure to bend reality to conform with unionism?

by fjallstrom on Fri Aug 20th, 2021 at 09:56:23 AM EST
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Good question. The problem for the TUV is that it is essentially a one man band for leader Jim Allister and doesn't have any other prominent personalities or candidates. At 68 he also isn't getting any younger. So it tends to mop up a hardline unionist vote without getting many candidates elected. As many of their voters also don't use the STV system properly to support allied parties, their votes are often wasted and end up electing nobody. The Alliance party is actually well placed to become the largest party despite not coming first in first preference votes because it might pick up lower preference transfer votes from non-aligned, moderate unionist, moderate nationalist and Greens voters.

So to answer your question, I don't really know whether it is a temporary protest or longer term transfer of loyalty by hardline unionist voters. A lot depends on whether Donaldson succeeds in overturning the protocol.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 20th, 2021 at 10:37:34 AM EST
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