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Good question. The problem for the TUV is that it is essentially a one man band for leader Jim Allister and doesn't have any other prominent personalities or candidates. At 68 he also isn't getting any younger. So it tends to mop up a hardline unionist vote without getting many candidates elected. As many of their voters also don't use the STV system properly to support allied parties, their votes are often wasted and end up electing nobody. The Alliance party is actually well placed to become the largest party despite not coming first in first preference votes because it might pick up lower preference transfer votes from non-aligned, moderate unionist, moderate nationalist and Greens voters.

So to answer your question, I don't really know whether it is a temporary protest or longer term transfer of loyalty by hardline unionist voters. A lot depends on whether Donaldson succeeds in overturning the protocol.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 20th, 2021 at 10:37:34 AM EST
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