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If the result comes close to the polling, the SPD has many options:
GroKo 46% vs 44% for the opposition
Traffic light: 52% vs 38%
Red-Green-Red: 47% vs 43%

However, if CDU does a bit worse GroKo is out and if Linke misses 5% Red-Green-Red is out. Traffic lights is the most stable combination numbers wise, but might be less stable considering political content. Kenya consisting of the three largest parties is stale numbers wise, but I think would have lots of internal tension.

Thanks for the write-up, we will see tomorrow!

by fjallstrom on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 11:55:38 AM EST
I've tried to read more about the electoral system on Wiki: Constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote), overhang seats, leveling seats...

I don't think I really understood it :-) besides the fact this is a mix of proportional system and FPTP consistency based voting.

The interesting thing is also that the total number of seats is variable too: even though the nominal number of seats is 598, the current 19th Bundestag has a total of 709 members, making it the largest Bundestag to date (Wiki).

This may have an impact on the number of seats required to reach a majority? In that case, the current Bundestag majority would be 355 votes instead of 300.

by Bernard on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 12:17:35 PM EST
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The distribution system is a bit complex (unless you are German I suppose), but it gives a result in seats that is very proportional to vote share.

Running seats/votes for the last election gives 7.46-7.53 seats per percentage of the vote with the slight advantage going to the smallest parties. So unless things are very even I think one can count with the percentages. If percentages in votes matches percentages in polls is another question.

by fjallstrom on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 08:44:11 PM EST
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