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I've tried to read more about the electoral system on Wiki: Constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote), overhang seats, leveling seats...

I don't think I really understood it :-) besides the fact this is a mix of proportional system and FPTP consistency based voting.

The interesting thing is also that the total number of seats is variable too: even though the nominal number of seats is 598, the current 19th Bundestag has a total of 709 members, making it the largest Bundestag to date (Wiki).

This may have an impact on the number of seats required to reach a majority? In that case, the current Bundestag majority would be 355 votes instead of 300.

by Bernard on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 12:17:35 PM EST
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The distribution system is a bit complex (unless you are German I suppose), but it gives a result in seats that is very proportional to vote share.

Running seats/votes for the last election gives 7.46-7.53 seats per percentage of the vote with the slight advantage going to the smallest parties. So unless things are very even I think one can count with the percentages. If percentages in votes matches percentages in polls is another question.

by fjallstrom on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 08:44:11 PM EST
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