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The distribution system is a bit complex (unless you are German I suppose), but it gives a result in seats that is very proportional to vote share.

Running seats/votes for the last election gives 7.46-7.53 seats per percentage of the vote with the slight advantage going to the smallest parties. So unless things are very even I think one can count with the percentages. If percentages in votes matches percentages in polls is another question.

by fjallstrom on Sat Sep 25th, 2021 at 08:44:11 PM EST
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