My sense is that the Omicron variant, having caused a huge spike in infections (but not in hospitalisations or deaths) seems to be burning itself out very rapidly in countries where it first emerged. Some people are even saying the pandemic will be effectively over in a few weeks, especially after the Pfizer pill to treat patients and prevent serious illness becomes available.

The big problem with this optimistic scenario is that we don't know what new variants will evolve next, their infectivity, virulence, or whether existing vaccines and pills will protect against them. Either way the excess deaths currently attributable to Covid will soon become normalised, lost in the mix of excess deaths caused by lack of health capacity to deal with non-Covid diseases.

If only human evolution was a quick, with the various strains of anti-vaxers dying out to be replaced by more sane individuals...

Index of Frank's Diaries