strikes again. I suppose the ideal scenario is a highly infective, low virulence variant which provides immunity to other more seriously virulent variants and effectively wipes them out.  This is (almost) what has happened in Ireland - a huge spike in cases, a big (but compared to Delta, a moderate) rise in hospitalisations, and very little impact on intensive care or ventilated case numbers and deaths.

New cases are now falling precipitously, despite a gradual loosening of lock down measures and a re-opening of schools after the holidays. With 90%+ double vaccination rates, including increasingly young children now and boosters plus a 22% of the population infected rate, its about time Herd immunity has kicked in.

That is not to say earlier strict lockdown measures were not necessary and effective. Ireland's death rate is abut half that of the UK despite an open land border with N. Ireland and a free travel area with Britain, and despite a more inclusive definition of what constitutes a "Covid death". (Early UK figures didn't include deaths outside hospitals and still count only cases with a positive test within 4 weeks of death and are about 30% lower than the number of cases which mentioned Covid as a contributory factor on the death cert).

Index of Frank's Diaries