Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

A Chara,- DARA GILROY (Letters, 17 January) argues that "The right to consent is an important principle of medical ethics and the right to bodily integrity is enshrined in our Constitution. Putting restrictions on the unvaccinated amounts to paying lip-service to these rights while illegitimately seeking to implicitly coerce. This is duress and undermines the right to consent."

The writer fails to note that the "right to bodily integrity" is not specifically "enshrined in our constitution" and that Article 40.1  also notes that while "All citizens shall, as human persons, be held equal before the law, This shall not be held to mean that the State shall not in its enactments have due regard to differences of capacity, physical and moral, and of social function"

Indeed, a bill to include a specific reference to a Right to Personal Autonomy and Bodily Integrity in our constitution was defeated in the Dail in 2014. Rights conferred by the constitution are not generally as absolute as libertarian advocates like to have us believe and are generally constrained by reference to phrases like "subject to the common good".

President Macron's reported comment that he wants to emmerder or "piss off" the unvaccinated are not helpful in this regard. It reinforces the narrative that the unvaccinated are the victims in all of this, and that they are being illegitimately coerced into giving up their right of consent.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody wants to discriminate against the unvaccinated in any way other than to protect their own health and that of the general public. A Vaccination certificate is a reasonable and proportionate way of doing this and infringes on no fundamental human right.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 01:07:12 PM EST
How does that work if indeed it is a gene?
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 03:12:38 PM EST
How does what work? The gene is only claimed to pre-dispose a person to severe illness. As such genetic testing and future counter measures may help to reduce severe illness and death and reduce Cov-19 to the status of an endemic flu to be managed by more conventional measures. It doesn't really effect the current civil liberties argument addressed in the diary.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 04:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If at least one version of the gene is present in the chromosome [...]
This is so wrong, that I had to go and check the news from University of Bialystok site, too. And it's even there. Must be bad translation, or something. Because everyone has at least one version of the gene, most people have two.

Elsewhere they did say they identified a variant that doubles the risk of severe covid infection. As all this was announced in a press conference, not in a peer reviewed publication, we don't really know what methodology they used. If was "merely" an association analysis, they can well be way off, since it's basically just regression analysis done the wrong way. There's always a big chance that the "association" is just a statistical fluke due to the method doing it's best to find something.

The best would be for somebody to come up with a testable biochemical explanation why a certain variation of a certain gene raises the risk of severe infection. The we would, perhaps, learn how to mitigate it in all patients.

by pelgus on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 05:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:39:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Organic chemistry is hard work even with CRSPR equipment.
Biostatistical sampling errors are way more fun.
So is cherry-picking genes.

"Pool testing" state of the art UPDATE!
UK virus hunting labs seek to bolster global variant network

The laboratory is one example of how British scientists have industrialized the process of genomic sequencing during the pandemic, cutting the time and cost needed to generate a unique genetic fingerprint for each coronavirus case analyzed.
DNA collected from air could revolutionize the monitoring of biodiversity
"The non-invasive nature of this approach makes it particularly valuable for observing vulnerable or endangered species as well as those in hard-to-reach environments, such as caves and burrows. They do not have to be visible for us to know they are in the area if we can pick up traces of their DNA, literally out of thin air," Clare said.
archived Rein in the four horsemen of irreproducibility
by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that we are all MGOs anything can happen, I guess. And for those who aren't they won't be allowed to move from their caves anymore. Arts and culture are under huge pressure without much help in sight unless they sell to a multinational.

Lifted from NC comments:
Denmark sitrep:

  • cases are remaining stable, but still mighty high (2k per 100k case rate)

  • the Danish SSI has successfully mixed the 95%+ omikron case data with the 5% delta data to get rid of the omikron being overrepresented in the double-vaccinated (being roughly 2x more likely than a completely unvaxxed to get omikron) and is full speed on everyone get boosters

  • both recovered & vaccinated EU QR-code coronapasses now expire at 5months (even though SSI data itself shows that reinfection risk after vax is 90% (10% protection) at 9 months and 20% (80% protection) for unvaccinated). Just yesterday 900k greenpasses (1/7th of the population) expired. 3 times weekly spending 30min in test queues or just get another jab.

  • one a personal note - going with the traditional Danish disease vector = Kindergarten, our little one brought omikron home & now the whole household is sick. Mostly just a shitty 24h of fever & headaches followed by mediocre enjoyment fatigue days, but all recovering. Even got to try out me horsey medication (didn't feel that I needed it, but just to squash tail risk).

  • due to the expiry of the needed QR greenpasses (if you work in ed or health), we have friends chasing sick people to get an infection `booster' - he's a Pharma PhD working on RNA and him & family has refused to take `experimental/ EUA products' all the way. Peverse health incentives.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:42:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hmm, yes, well, conceptions of liberty--according to European intellectual history-- is rather fraught with exceptions, cautionary tales, and misapprehension of the exclusive "rights" and superseding "interests of" a state, typically expressed as the "consent of the governed" opposed to, ahem, abject tyranny.

I can't speak to any political culture, or folkways common to the peoples inhabiting Ireland, but you have offered much insight to historical struggles to differentiate authorities of church and state--most conspicuously proved pertinent by constitutional amendment re: abortion.

So, my immediate appreciation for your observations is that (i) indeed, the balance of private and public "goods" models ethical rather than reactionary discourse; and (ii) I do hope, publication of this letter stimulates your readers to examine their expectations and the very real limitations of modern medical arts--alone or in concert with bureaucratic police apparatus--in eliminating moral hazards every minute, every hour, every day.

by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 08:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
COVID: Germany sputters on vaccine mandate
Many opponents of such a policy cite a statute in Germany's constitution, the Basic Law: It mandates that the government must protect people's health and safety and prohibits the government from interfering with a person's right to make their own choices about what happens to their body.

The Infektionsschutzgesetz (infection protection law) allows state and federal governments to mandate immunization for at-risk parts of the population" against a "contagious disease that presents clinically severe outcomes and when its epidemical spread is expected."

A widespread vaccine mandate would have to walk the line between these two contradictory elements very carefully or risk being thrown out by the courts. This has been the case in the United States, where President Joe Biden's order that large companies mandate vaccines for workers was thrown out by the Supreme Court, citing arguments of government overreach.

by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doctors in Germany are forbidden by law from providing information on abortion procedures

It took me 1 minute to find a list of doctors that perform abortions. Is that  possible in the US?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 12:04:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One might imagine, no, given the EXPLOSION this year of concern for and litigation on behalf of poor menstruating persons of color fleeing undue burdens foisted on them by "deputies" of the several states ... and the SCOTUS scrutiny of "informational interest" of the states.

NIFLA v. Becerra 20 Mar 2018

The FACT Act requires clinics that primarily serve pregnant women to provide certain notices. Clinics that are licensed must notify women that California provides free or low-cost services, including abortions, and give them a phone number to call. Its stated purpose is to make sure that state residents know their rights and what health care services are available to them. Unlicensed clinics must notify women that California has not licensed the clinics to provide medical services. Its stated purpose is to ensure that pregnant women know when they are receiving health care from licensed professionals. Petitioners--two crisis pregnancy centers, one licensed and one unlicensed, and an organization of crisis pregnancy centers--filed suit. They alleged that both the licensed and the unlicensed notices abridge the freedom of speech protected by the First Amendment.
Even if the State had presented a non-hypothetical justification, the FACT Act unduly burdens protected speech. It imposes a government-scripted, speaker-based disclosure requirement that is wholly disconnected from the State's informational interest. It requires covered facilities to post California's precise notice, no matter what the facilities say on site or in their advertisements. And it covers a curiously narrow subset of speakers: those that primarily provide pregnancy-related services, but not those that provide, e.g., nonprescription birth control. Such speaker-based laws run the risk that "the State has left unburdened those speakers whose messages are in accord with its own views." For these reasons, the unlicensed notice does not satisfy Zauderer, assuming that standard applies. Pp. 17-20. 839 F. 3d 823, reversed and remanded.

THOMAS, J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which ROBERTS, C. J., and KENNEDY, ALITO, and GORSUCH, JJ., joined. KENNEDY, J., filed a concurring opinion, in which ROBERTS, C. J., and ALITO and GORSUCH,JJ., joined. BREYER, J., filed dissenting opinion, in which GINSBURG, SOTOMAYOR, and KAGAN, JJ., joined.

archived Tue Jun 26th, 2018
by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 03:16:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 06:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
António Horta-Osório

Many more nations will legislate for a mandate due to the pandemic and public health. There is sufficient data to show the vaccines are safe and catching the Covid-19 virus is not - see data Alberta, Canada.

The only waiver should be for health reasons of personal nature and very tight religious exemption. Tough rules as with the draft during the Vietnam War.

There are exemplary nations who have upped the double vaccination rate above 90%. For some strange turn of events, for the booster jab necessary for the Omicron variant in The Netherlands, less than half under 60 years old have come forward.

The students and young adults who crave for social mixing have the toughest time to get through these times which is understandable.

Just a small percentage of unvaccinated persons living in clusters will perpetuate the pandemic and force the government to stricter rules and shut down shops and business. So called biting oneself in the butt.

In press briefings, reporters ask stupid questions which obfuscate clear arguments for rules. Sometimes politicians take the lead in ignorance .. Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson and Rutte. Have learned a bit about society of Denmark, solidarity a great starting point to fight the pandemic.

Statement - We can beat COVID-19 virus through solidarity | Copenhagen - March 19, 2020 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 03:16:01 PM EST
Tough rules as with the draft during the Vietnam War.
by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 03:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Religious Exemption: now and then | dKos |

High risk to use any comparison ... more often goes lame.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 04:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"sincerely held religious belief" < squint > OR a YUGE wad of cash, Mr Cheney?

Exemptions and Enrollments

by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 08:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dr. Drop Your Drawers
He also allegedly traded sexual favors for letters to send to Vietnam-era draft boards establishing men as homosexual and thus making them eligible for a draft deferment.
by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 02:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand why the unvaxxed became the problem when some countries, including South Korea and Japan, initially considered vaccinating only the elderly and the at risk on a voluntary basis, that is to say, there is no scientific reason why the unvaccinated should be a more dangerous pool than colonies in animals (as in 'mink farms' and else; or even in zoos, cf.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/08/snow-leopard-dies-covid-19-illinois-zoo), or again, tourists returning from a place where the wave is only at its beginning.
Some research throughout the epidemy has noticed that the superspreaders were actually quite few in comparison to the infected people. That's maybe why very few countries did serious contact tracing (Belgium is one).
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 06:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Japan has relied pretty extensively on contact tracing, especially in the early days of the epidemic. The Japanese government was also paralyzed by the thought of losing the Olympics, and did everything it could to put up a smokescreen regarding its slowness to begin a vaccination campaign. They didn't have the vaccines, and didn't have a plan to distribute them, and pretended that the problem was "vaccine hesitancy." But lo and behold, the moment vaccines became available the demand was overwhelming, and Japan quickly went from being a worldwide laggard in vaccine deployment to being a high percentage country.
by Zwackus on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 06:10:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"the booster jab necessary for the Omicron variant in The Netherlands"
The booster jab is not mandatory in the Netherlands; it was not advertised as related to Omicron but was launched when Israeli studies revealed that the vaccine protection was waning after 6 months for all group ages but more dramatically for elderly populations (which NL has). This study was published in Israel last summer and it provoked their Booster campaign (not the 4th jab).
The US is still dealing with Delta, even though Omicron is now prevalent but the speed of diffusion in the US is much slower than in EU countries, due to size. During the first wave it followed the highways out of NY.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The booster jab is not mandatory in the Netherlands; it was not advertised as related to Omicron but was launched when Israeli studies revealed that the vaccine protection was waning after 6 months for all group ages but more dramatically for elderly populations (which NL has).

Total bull.

See timeline of my diaries for past 24 months on this topic. I will not repeat myself. By chance the Dutch and the EU-26 have their own scientists and production facilities for vaccines.

Yes indeed, the Dutch have a very healthy group of elderly who are amongst the top in global longevity. We have excellent universal healthcare and are active in family life and society at an advanced age.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have we lost another member while I was not watching? 😀
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:35:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Dutch and EU26 = 27?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 10:12:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is not mandatory, that is all I said. It was finally made available in November, later than Israel and that France of course, but since the vaccination campaign in NL had been one of the latest, it was still 6 month after most ppl were jabbed.
JenJ are obliged to take mRNA up to now, in spite of the Sisonke trial in SA, which used JenJ booster (same product, reinjected again, not a different composition)
/www.gezondheidsraad.nl/over-ons/documenten/adviezen/2021/12/24/inzet-vaccin-van-janssen-als- booster
I agree that the Dutch are healthy. Among the +70 ppl I know, I don't know anyone who caught covid or even who knows anyone who had it here. But in the Bible belt it is another story. Those get exemptions for everything, they had their congregations go on in the same churches were concerts have been forbidden since mid December (and still are). Apparently they might get exemption from vaccination on religious ground as well (I suspect this last point is just a rumour).
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see why the unvaccinated should be suspected of spreading more virus than people in whom the vaccine wanes after 6 months, which in aged populations as in some EU countries are a majority. On top of that the (numerous) people on whom vaccination has no effect (waning or already before) cannot be jabbed every 6 months, if only for practical reasons, and especially when the circulation of all strains is assured by the full planes/trains of tourists moving in all direction.

I think the suicide rates are going to be skyrocketting.
Or maybe we'll be saved by the metaverse and psychedelic drugs (CBD shops are booming in the West too). Coincidence?
https:/www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/01/party-drugs-may-help-depression-but-use-must-be-monitored-doct ors-warn

by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 06:37:05 PM EST
In Germany, you can't get help committing suicide unless you are vaccinated.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 06:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Overdose of speculation ... bother to support your statements by a bit of science?

The Dutch with rightwing parties just about in a majority, cannot be taken at face value. Rutte is a BoJo image working in a tower in medieval setting in the heart of The Hague. On Covid-19 his voice will be muted by two new ministers with a sound scientific mind.

In the Summer a new vaccine will be available on time for a new Fall surge of a corona virus variant. The Dutch have ordered a 3-fold from Pfizer BioNTech in Europe.

The elderly >70 years have stopped excess dying from Covid-19 and cause an insignificant spread the Omicron virus.

Breaking news: a group of Dutch veterans from Srebrenica fame have marched (in military tenue) with the anti-vaxxers in Amsterdam "to secure safety of demonstrators and protect freedom of speech." Sound familiar?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 07:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A bit of science: check the curves of Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar. Surge with all pop vaccinated, boosted, as many times you want. Your solution is not sustainable and people will die of addictions, suicide and violence in much greater proportions.
It would have made sense to vaccinate the +70, but they are the voters, so our 'social-democracies' did not want to pressure them. They are quite useful to milk the younger populations and keep them quiet.
When you read that on a sport website,
you realize there is a bigger problem. But what we read in the MSM is empty of chronology and of curves' analysis. Raoult does that, Ioannitis too, as Campbell does with national statistics regularly.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 08:02:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
check the curves of Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar.

I did. Israel 65.3%, Iceland 77.8%. full vaccination.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 08:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they both experienced waves immediately after being the highest vaccinated in the waves. Why do you assume the unvaxxed have spread covid in the NL (with all venues closed since mid December this has kept most tourists away) rather than the planes from SA that were still landing well into early December and the short ban, ca 10 days, was lifted on 22/12?
The figures have been going down in hospitalization now that Delta is coming to an end (serious covid cases are usually about 3 weeks in hospital).
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds familiar as in France (and the US): you have the choice between the extreme-right and the extreme-right.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University explainin elusive herd immunity, or "universal immunizition"
Omicron is more likely[?!] than delta to reinfect individuals who previously had COVID-19 and to cause "breakthrough infections" in vaccinated people while also attacking the unvaccinated.
"People have wondered whether the virus will evolve to mildness. But there's no particular reason for it to do so," he said.
except the 100-year transformation of 1918 H1N1 AKA Spanish Flu into "seasonal strains"
Experts say the virus won't become endemic like the flu as long as global vaccination rates are so low. ...
Moderna hopes to market combined COVID and flu booster in 2023
by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 07:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Ireland boosters have been administered within 6 Months of the second jab. There is no reason why this cannot be done on an ongoing basis if required to contain the pandemic. Uptake has been the 90% range and this has contributed to a very low increase in deaths compared to a huge spike in Omicron and Delta infections.

You will have to provide empirical evidence to support your contention that the unvaccinated are no more likely to spread the virus than vaccinated people, or that vaccination has no effect on "numerous people." That is not reported by leading infectious diseases experts in Ireland.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:47:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
https:/www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/japan-begins-covid-19-shots-over-65s-fou rth-infection-wave-looms-2021-04-12
(focused on the +65)

https:/www.haaretz.com/israel-news/data-showing-covid-booster-waning-among-elderly-behind-israel-s- fourth-dose-decision-1.10491124
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/14151?utm_source=gquery&utm_medium=referral&a mp;utm_campaign=gquery-home

by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:00:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On ET it is best practice to embed your links and give a brief synopsis of what the reader can exact to find there. People don't have time to follow raw links on the off chance their may be something relevant or useful there. Also your first link refers to a link that is over 10 months old - which is rather a long time ago in the evolution of this pandemic and societal and medical responses to it.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What Frank said. I already mentioned the same a few days ago (trying to help a newbie).

It would be good if you could take a bit of time doing that: this would help other readers understand your point and show a bit of consideration. Thanks!

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in Losing Battle Against Omicron,
in Latest Data Omicron Variant, and
in Herd Immunity .. Filling the Gaps

since Israel confirmed neither mRNA "vaccine" prevented infection, re-infection or "breakthrough vaccine cases of delta or the brief appearance of a so-called DeltaPlus variant last July in Milton Leitenberg SARS-CoV-2 virus Weaponized;

Planas et al, "Reduced sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta to antibody neutralization", 8 July 2021

so by month's end, the scramble to revive "vaccine" value in preventing "severe illness or death" rather than immunity, had penetrated even value-priced USAToday, which advised:

Once infected, though, vaccinated people are just as contagious as those without that protection  -- meaning they need to wear a mask and keep their distance to avoid passing on the virus.
Goldberg, et al, "Waning immunity of the BNT162b2 vaccine: A nationwide study from Israel", 30 Aug 2021
by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 05:30:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
in case you missed it AND CDC 5+5 chief did not mention in any prior booster advert
High number of Omicron mutations render antibodies ineffective - study, 22 Jan 2022
New research indicates the 46 mutations found in the COVID-19 Omicron variant have rendered [mRNA induced] antibodies ineffective, accounting for the high number of re-infections and breakthrough cases.
The peer-reviewed study titled "Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: Unique features and their impact on pre-existing antibodies" was first published in the Journal of Autoimmunity and was produced by Kamlendra Singh, a professor in the University of Missouri College of Veterinary Medicine and assistant director of the college's Molecular Interactions Core and Bond Life Sciences Center investigator.
Two of the mutations had first been recorded in the Delta or Delta Plus [!] variant, which preceded Omicron by several months. Of the 46 mutations found, 30 were identified in the S-protein, while the remainder were located elsewhere in the virus cell[sic].
archived single point of pharma mRN engineered FAILURE, elsewhere in virus RNA strands
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 05:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My sense is that the Omicron variant, having caused a huge spike in infections (but not in hospitalisations or deaths) seems to be burning itself out very rapidly in countries where it first emerged. Some people are even saying the pandemic will be effectively over in a few weeks, especially after the Pfizer pill to treat patients and prevent serious illness becomes available.

The big problem with this optimistic scenario is that we don't know what new variants will evolve next, their infectivity, virulence, or whether existing vaccines and pills will protect against them. Either way the excess deaths currently attributable to Covid will soon become normalised, lost in the mix of excess deaths caused by lack of health capacity to deal with non-Covid diseases.

If only human evolution was a quick, with the various strains of anti-vaxers dying out to be replaced by more sane individuals...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 08:45:43 PM EST
when everyone lives forever.
by Cat on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 09:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As long as you let full planes of tired jet-lagged people bring each new strain to new territories, you will make Big Pharma happy.
Even the poor travel, so multiple boosters in a small percentage of the world population won't help (as per WHO https://www.voanews.com/a/who-chief-warns-covid-booster-programs-may-prolong-pandemic/6365386.html).
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of the Australian Open, #WhereIsPengShuai?
Novax had stolen all the limelight there.
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 10:55:56 PM EST
Is she even lost?
by generic on Mon Jan 17th, 2022 at 11:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yer boy Fauci speaking at the World Economic Forum's Davos Agenda online conference
"it is an open question whether it [SARS-CoV-2 omicron] will be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for," according to CNBC.

"I would hope that that's the case. But that would only be the case if we don't get another variant that eludes the immune response of the prior variant," he added.

by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 01:27:17 AM EST
strikes again. I suppose the ideal scenario is a highly infective, low virulence variant which provides immunity to other more seriously virulent variants and effectively wipes them out.  This is (almost) what has happened in Ireland - a huge spike in cases, a big (but compared to Delta, a moderate) rise in hospitalisations, and very little impact on intensive care or ventilated case numbers and deaths.

New cases are now falling precipitously, despite a gradual loosening of lock down measures and a re-opening of schools after the holidays. With 90%+ double vaccination rates, including increasingly young children now and boosters plus a 22% of the population infected rate, its about time Herd immunity has kicked in.

That is not to say earlier strict lockdown measures were not necessary and effective. Ireland's death rate is abut half that of the UK despite an open land border with N. Ireland and a free travel area with Britain, and despite a more inclusive definition of what constitutes a "Covid death". (Early UK figures didn't include deaths outside hospitals and still count only cases with a positive test within 4 weeks of death and are about 30% lower than the number of cases which mentioned Covid as a contributory factor on the death cert).

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 10:42:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SARS-CoV-2 variants are still infecting vaccinated* and unvaccinated people: "Confirmed and probable" CASE VOLUME alone has defined the success (failure) of pharmaceutical (P) and non-pharmaceutical (NP) "interventions" ordered by governments ostensibly to eliminate all instances of all variants of SARS-COV-2 ("coronavirus") circulating human and non-human populations. Which is ridiculous. No manufacturer ever claimed in EUA apps to eliminate (innoculate, immunize, or, now, "neutralize" VOCs), merely mediate risks of "severe illness or death" indicated by serum ANTIBODIES.

BUT estimates and counts (if any) are not 1:1 case per person. Just so, double- and triple-count DOSAGE exaggerate the cumulative number of vaccinated persons. IF you can find a "dashboard" or peer-reviewed (tiny) sample case studies that differentiate subject "immunity" by multiple infection or multiple dosage per person, post it. Here NY State Health Department methodological notes typify statistical error and common institutional ignorance, otherwise reserved for primitive Third World countries and commies.

What has appeared in HOSPITALIZATION and DEATHS reporting over the prior 8 months is, those numbers are not increasing at the same rate as case volume. It is a mistake to presume that vaccination alone is a limiting factor on case volume--despite relentless pop fiction disseminated by MSM "experts" who routinely exclude ALL-CAUSES in reporting either metric in order to tie vaccination uptake to "herd immunity". Which is ridiculous. How could you (pl.) forget that members of this board interrogated rampant COMORBID diseases ("pre-existing-," "underlying-" or "immune-compromised" conditions), relevant and irrelevant DEMOGRAPHIC traits, and MEDICAL ESTABLISHMENTS' services and equipment in the first 2 years of commonsensical multi-factor analysis of mortality rates? How could you dismiss persistent "with?" or "from?" causal controversy in custodial reporting? How have some become enthralled with the poetry of inert RNA transformed into a winged parasitic organism capable of spontaneous REPRODUCTION and PLANNING its "escapes" and "survival" by "selecting" anti-vaxxers?

CDC measles, PHIL ID #21074, CDC influenza A virus, CDC coronavirus, PHIL ID #23312, CDC coronavirus, PHIL ID #23312, USAToday front page, 01/11/22

"Experts" have admitted "herd immunity" is a canard--a ploy to establish NEW! product lines of maintenance drugs and supply of human "hosts" for experimentation. It's time to admit that, to interrogate the urgency and end-point of you consenting to indiscriminate, novel "interventions" whose actual recombinant and chemical properties as well clinical benefit are alternately unknown or little understood.

Morens, Taubenberger, Fauci, "Universal Coronavirus Vaccines -- An Urgent Need", NEJM. 15 Dec 2021

To gain insights into natural history and pathogenesis, it will be important to study the coronaviruses that were[?] probably once pandemic [WTAF] but have now[?!] become endemic. These four viruses ― the betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 and the alphacoronaviruses 229E and NL63 ― cause mostly mild upper respiratory infections and can be studied in laboratory animals and in humans to characterize their epidemiology, cell tropism, elicited immune responses, cross-reactive and cross-protective epitopes, and the mechanisms by which they ["]survive["] and evolve in the face of high population immunity[?!]. Ethical human challenge studies4 can be conducted using modern genomic, transcriptomic, and immunologic tools.
by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 04:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although clinical studies of vaccine efficacy will ultimately be needed
none exist
we must also begin now to investigate correlates of human immunity after both natural SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, including by evaluating the durability of responses and their localization (mucosal and systemic).
false dichotomy
Human challenge [!] studies with the human "cold virus" coronaviruses (e.g., OC43) will probably be important.
ya think?
by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 05:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do multiple boosters 'exhaust' our immune responses?
Fourth doses of the COVID-19 vaccine don't appear to offer significant protection against catching omicron according to a preliminary study conducted in Israel, the first country to authorize a [first and] second booster for its general population.
These findings appear to confirm doubts expressed by the European Union's top drug regulator last week. Marco Cavaleri, the European Medicines Agency's head of vaccines strategy, said at a news briefing there's no data supporting the broad effectiveness of fourth boosters.
Researchers say that although it's true that there's no clinical data proving the effectiveness of multiple boosters, there's also no science to back up the idea that frequent boosters could cause "fatigue" in the population. That's because the research has never been attempted.
While T cell [B-cell?]exhaustion can be observed in cancer or HIV patients in response to some immune-based treatments, it's never been observed in humans in response to frequent COVID-19 vaccination. Obst said that although there's little clinical data behind it, Cavaleri's concern makes sense.
The COVID-19 vaccines have been held to an impossible standard, he said. When the phase three studies on the quality of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were presented in the US in December 2020, they showed claimed a 95% efficacy against mild [COVID-19] illness.
by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 07:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks! This is restoring a bit of my trust in the EMA. I am afraid the guy should already look for his next job because I doubt his contract will be renewed, when time comes.
Isn't it obvious that people are a bit scared when they read (here: https:/www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/covid-19-vaccine-janssen-epar-product-inf ormation_en.pdf): "The safety and efficacy of COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen in children and adolescents (less than 18 years
of age) have not yet been established. No data are available." or "Interaction with other medicinal products and other forms of interaction
No interaction studies have been performed. Concomitant administration of COVID-19 Vaccine
Janssen with other vaccines has not been studied." (the latest point is not true, the Philippines did... but it was 'government' funded apparently... not enough for JandJ aparently:
www.philstar.com/headlines/2022/01/10/2152809/dost-funded-covid-19-vaccine-mix-and-match-stu dy-underway)

In fact the other vaccines have also not been studied for interaction with other medicinal products. (Corminary aka Pfizer, https:www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/comirnaty-epar-product-information_en.pdf )

But apparently we are expected to 'suspend judgment' and  stop reading miindications

Also, we are still using these under "conditional authorization"
/www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-cov id-19/treatments-vaccines/vaccines-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-authorised

by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 12:28:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pandemic deaths rise by 12% as cases soar
The body of this AFP database digest is increase of CASE VOLUME ranging -25% to +327%.

Who do you trust with "empirical evidence" and your very own health care?
What have you learned about pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical intervention and clinical remedies for COVID-19 infection?
Are you really going to base that decision on diverging statistical descriptions and florid headline news?
archived What this means, I believe ...
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 02:23:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The rich world leading the race. What a complete 360° in comparison with the worldwide protests all around the pre-covid world against the destruction of the environment, junk food, pollution etc. Now you need a car to go anywhere without being asked (by anyone, the bus driver, the bar's waiter, the cinema cashier, the school teacher...) for your "health" ID. And be happy you have one! it means you are in a "protective" system (wonder where Medicare fits into that).
The American dream, a car for all.
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 08:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
POLITICO < CDC: Vaccinated Americans with a prior infection fared the best during Delta
The study did not explain why protection against reinfection and hospitalization grew among those individuals with a prior infection during Delta.

The study, published Wednesday, looked at four categories of people in New York and California -- individuals who were unvaccinated with and without a prior infection and vaccinated people with and without a prior infection.
Eli Rosenberg, deputy director for science at the New York State Department of Health who helped with the study, said "the totality of the evidence suggests ... that both vaccination and having survived Covid each provide protection against subsequent infection and hospitalization." "Either of those provides protection, and only one of those is the safe choice that we would recommend. And that's vaccination," he said.

REUTERS | Prior COVID infection more protective than vaccination during Delta surge -U.S. study
Protection against Delta was highest, however, among people who were both vaccinated and had survived a previous COVID infection, and lowest among those who had never been infected or vaccinated, the study found.
COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis -- California and New York, May-November 2021, Early Release / January 19, 2022 / 71

well, alrighty then
archivedSCOTUS oral argument, NFIB v. Dept. of Labor

JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR: Others, unvaccinated people at risk and people who are vaccinated. They may be at a lesser risk, but the grave risk remains to people of all ages and conditions that are unvaccinated.
MR. FLOWERS: Right, but -- but the problem is they've defined numerical probabilities that are equal to be grave in one case and not grave in the other, and that is the definition of irrational.
NY Health methodological notes
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 08:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is interesting that Ireland had the booster campaign under strict lockdown, same as UK vaccination campaign a year ago and actually what is recommended rather than mass vaccination in the midst of full circulation of the virus(es), as in most countries.
by Tom2 on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 09:21:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While in principle I agree that vaccine passports can be used (and are in use in many countries to check incoming travellers), and I also agree that it is likely to be counter-productive, I am going to argue that in this case a specific part of your argument doesn't work.

It is this sub-sentence I take issue with:

it is a vindication of the human rights of others to be protected from unnecessary risk of harm.

The substance of the sentence is true - others have the right to be protected from unnecessary risk - but I don't think it applies here.

The current level of protection from the vaccines doesn't appear to give much - if any - protection against catching and spreading the virus. Where Omicron spreads, number of cases rise in both vaccinated and unvaccinated alike (I can give examples if the point is contested, but it takes some digging). There is significant protection against grave illness and death (which IIRC was also what they tested for in the studies before the vaccines were released).

So the vaccinated people in a pub doesn't get a health benefit from a no-unvaccinated rule, they are as likely to catch the virus from any of the vaccinated who are there as they would from unvaccinated. (If the vaccines were so good that you effectively could get not the virus if you are vaccinated, the vaccinated wouldn't get infected at all, but the vaccines are not that good.)

If anyone gets a health benefit it is the unvaccinated that doesn't go to the pub and doesn't catch covid. One can argue (but that isn't the argument you were making) that there is a overall health benefit from not infecting the unvaccinated, in that the hospitals aren't taxed beyond their means. But if the vaccinated gather and increase the spread in society, that makes it more likely that they infect someone unvaccinated at the grocery store. So then we are back to closing the pubs.

And that is really my main objection to covid passports. I don't think they decrease spread, I think they increase spread by lulling people into a false sense of security and allowing unsafe activities as if they were safe. Either you can run a pub with rules that minimise spread, or you can't. And if you can't you either allow it anyway (because Irish needs pubs), or you don't.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 10:51:54 AM EST
I agree that the primary benefit of vaccination is the reduced risk of serious illness, particularly for the elderly, and this has significant implications for Ireland's hugely overstretched health services which have seen a huge reduction in elective and other health services, increased waiting lists for urgent treatments, and morbidity from non Covid causes.

The Irish Times only published two paragraphs out of five in my original letter and you can really only make one point in a letter if you want to have a high chance of it being published.

The fact that vaccination only has a limited benefit in reducing spread is something that has only become clear in relatively recent times, and particularly with Omicron which seems to reside in the nasal tract and upper throat even in vaccinated people, and thus still represents a huge risk of reinfection.

However the comparison I make with intoxicated, uninsured or unlicensed drivers is I think fair. There is only a small statistical increase in the chances that such drivers will cause an accident leading to serious harm, but that is deemed by society to be a sufficient reason to ban them completely.

Mask mandates are still operative in Ireland and that is the best preventative measure we still have. As I say in my comment above I think this debate is about to become moot in Ireland, at least, because a precipitous decline in cases, - unless we get a more virulent variant coming in.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 11:42:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the vaccinated people in a pub doesn't get a health benefit from a no-unvaccinated rule, they are as likely to catch the virus from any of the vaccinated who are there as they would from unvaccinated.

I think this is probably objectively false. It is the casual lie that because vaccinated can spread the virus then there is no difference between being vaccinated and being unvaccinated. This is not an all-or-nothing situation. The likelihood of transmission from a vaccinated person is almost certainly lower, if for no other reason than that Omicron is not yet the only game in town. Would your opinion be the same if Delta was still the dominant strain?

In the specific case of Omicron the difference might not be so much, but that may be before factoring in the effect of boosters. I suspect it is still too early to draw a definitive conclusion. In any case, even if the difference is nil the fact that we may have gotten lucky with how the virus mutated in this case in no way retroactively justifies a decision to have remained unvaccinated.

by det on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 11:54:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think  we have enough information yet to declare objective falsehoods. There were reported "breakthrough" infections already with Delta. And even before that.
When discussing likelihoods in risk mitigation, one must also take into the account the frequency of an event.
So even if likelihood of of passing infection is slightly lower with vaccination, but the passport allows for huge raise in possibilities for transfer the end result may will be more transmissions.

I'm personally fully vaccinated (2+booster) and think the passport is mostly security theater to maintain as much as possible business as usual. I've been asked to show my passport three times, but only once with an ID to show that it was actually my vaccination status. Which to me proved the point.

by pelgus on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 12:11:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would suggest that for pre-Omicron variants we probably do have enough information. From memory there was something like a factor of 7 difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated across the board - likelihood of contraction, likelihood of hospitization, likelihood of requiring ICU care. I would be surprised if that did not also extend to likelihood of transmission.

To be clear: solely in the context of Omicron, Fjallstrom may well be spot on. But it is probably not yet the case that "the virus" and "Omicron" can be used interchangeably.

by det on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 12:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would be surprised if that did not also extend to likelihood of transmission.

The only metric for viral communicability was/is R(0), a function predicting CASE VOLUME over time and predicated by average P2P contact frequency, promulgated by epidemiologists, the Big Data specialists--not biologists, virologists, or clinicians.

According to my knowledge and belief, general interest in "pre-omicron" variants, circulating the world, has been limited to exactly two (2) by MSM press. However, geneticist had reported variable trajectories in Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes recovered from serum samples as early as 15 April, 2020.

The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.

In the R&D contest for vaccine EUA (Dec 2020), the latter began disseminating structural analyses of SAR-CoV-2 "Wuhan strain" AKA "pre-Alpha" and Alpha (GB "variant of interest", Victoria) which established measures of candidates' efficacy purporting either to retard cellular replication of that specific viral RNA or COVID-19 disease morbidity and mortality rate, regardless of inevitable SARS-CoV-2 genomic variation.

The presumption that virus mutations are "stable" or can be mechanically controlled by simultaneously inoculating every one on the planet with one or two obsolete mRNA remedies, formulated one year ago for one genome sequence, is irrational. Yet it lingers in the popular imagination of the power of R(0), mastery of intangible phenomena and P2P freedom from the "unvaccinated" whose contributions, even sacrifices, to scientific truth and biological diversity are not well-understood.

by Cat on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 04:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have tried, and failed, to linkable find sources to back me up. They are not linkable as they are often news items in Swedish on local television, or in the spoken portion of reports to the local hospital board, but here is what I have got regarding Sweden:

  • Omicron is, at least now and at least here, for practical purposes the only game in town. Latest waste water analyses discussed on local news was all Omicron.
  • Spread was during the small delta wave here more among the unvaccinated (but that could also mean it was more among the young), however since November the spread numbers has been very similar among vaccinated and unvaccinated. If being unvaccinated is a random factor, you would get that result, but if it is correlated to various social factors, you would get heavier outbreaks among unvaccinated groups. And we haven't seen that.

Obviously if there are studies on the amount of virus exhaled among vaccinated and unvaccinated, that would settle the specific point.

However to be honest, unless there is a spectacular difference, I wouldn't change my mind on the passports. Because what we really need is to estimate the amount of virus in the indoor air, and in most pubs it will reach an unhealthy level even with just vaccinated, because most indoor places are not enough ventilated. Hence the yearly cold season.

Just to be clear, I think vaccinations are for most people a good thing to prevent serious illness and death. I got my covid booster shot friday and got my flu shot at the same time (the weekend was less fun). It is Covid passports I think is at best a wash, and potentially a bad public health policy. A massive air quality and ventilation program for public spaces (with heat exchange so save energy) would in my opinion be better.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 01:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts.

The Lancet, first link I came across in Google :-)
by pelgus on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 01:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tried to embed on the world thread, no dice
by Tom2 on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 02:15:36 PM EST
Try again: insert some text between the opening and closing "a" tags, such as:

<a href="https://dossier.substack.com/p/rogue-street-art-appears-overnight"> Rogue street art appears overnight in D.C.</a>

This will show as:

Rogue street art appears overnight in D.C.

You can even use the blockquote tags to quote some text from the piece you're linking to:

<blockquote>I wanted to turn your attention to a handful of premier art masterpieces that have appeared overnight in Washington, D.C. </blockquote>

This will show as:

I wanted to turn your attention to a handful of premier art masterpieces that have appeared overnight in Washington, D.C.
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 06:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect a user permission problem.
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 02:31:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, there was a "newbie" setting, due to Tom having joined recently: I moved him to the regular users group (had to search for how to do it), so should be all clear now. Thanks for pointing that out.
by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 04:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 02:30:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It will be interesting to see the fallout from the various anti-vaccination laws that are currently popular. If they are narrowly written to apply only to SARS-CoV-2, then when the next virus comes out--with a slightly different ID--the laws will be obsolete. If they are broadly written, then people will claim that they don't need to get their kids vaccinated against polio, and in a few years there will be a polio (or measles, or whooping cough, etc.) epidemic.

Also one might question what it is about the COVID vaccine that triggers this surge of enthusiasm for "right to consent" re-evaluation. Given that mandatory vaccination has been in place globally for several decades, there is something special about the COVID vaccine; what is it? (The obvious answer is politics, but one cannot accept the argument that vaccination is being politicized, right?)

by asdf on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 04:01:05 PM EST
We did have measles outbeaks thanks to anti-vaxers just a few years before COVID (Orthodox Jews in NY, Yuppies in Marin county, M5S in Italy etc.). And polio is coming back, thanks to Obama.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 04:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
pandemic preparedness covered that exercise?
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what is special is that we are still using them under special authorizations and that they have not been tested long enough.
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 12:32:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Pfizer vaccine got full approval from the FDA (in the US, obviously) last summer.
by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great, now we're got the hard core ignorant hick anti-vaxer's showing up.

Dear little Tommy --

Please state the title of your Ph.d. thesis and the name of your principal advisor as well as your experience in pharmaceutical, biological, or biochemical research.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be nice!
by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 05:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not anti-vaxx. I got the 1 jab vax and now I don't want an mRNA booster, although this is the only thing on offer where I live. By the way, where I live the booster is not mandatory, and since the WHO itself said yesterday they don't see the use of boosters on young people (despite the fact every parents with kids at school know that children and young adults studying have been among the larger spreaders at each single wave), I don't see why I should enrol in an experiment (I received a paper stating I was, after taking the 1 jab vax, because it was being removed from other countries offer after some complications).
This means I am persona non grata in France since 15/12 unless I take a paying test. There is no study that proves I can infect anyone because I am not boosted. Having had palpitation issues for many years (even with just one expresso), I don't feel like playing Russian roulette, sorry. I do not understand either why tourists with Sinovac can visit Schengen but I am not allowed to ask for Sinovac. When these kind of opacities will be removed, I will consider the issue. For now I am a citizen banned from his own country (I don't have the money to afford paying tests all the time, and you would admit that visiting a country without any possibility to go out is a bit... harsh).
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 08:21:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you in the US? (That's what your User info says) Originally from France?
by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 09:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I prefer to avoid this kind of discussions. Please let me be wherever I want.
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 09:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK. You just happened to make references to "where I live" and that you are "persona non grata in France" (as opposed to Belgium? Italy?). I was trying to understand your point.
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 09:02:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK. You are the one who just made references to "where I live" and that you are "persona non grata in France" (as opposed to? Belgium? Italy? Thailand?). I was trying to understand your point.

If you don't want to elaborate, we'll of course respect your choice. Just don't expect your statements to be taken at face value if you choose not to back them by facts and figures.

by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 09:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to France -> green | orange | red vaccination status ->
compelling reasons

Mandatory vaccination at third-country point of origin is irrelevant to France entry. France imposes mandatory vaccination.

by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 10:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a pretty weak argument to claim that people who refuse to get vaccinated should not be restricted against social activities. That argument suggests, for example, that people who refuse to obtain a civil engineering license should not be restricted against designing bridges.
by asdf on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 04:04:23 PM EST
Theoretically, the only one injured by an unvaccinated person is the unvaccinated person, since serial vaccinated persons of any age, location, and pre-existing condition are "immunized" in any case, right?

Now, if you want to calculate economic injury caused by ill unvaccinated persons exhausting "public" hospitals, medical insurance, and sundry law enforcement services to taxpayers, go there. Without lipstick.

by Cat on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 05:41:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that's incorrect. Unvaccinated people are more likely to get infected, to start with. And they are less infectious to others. At least that is what the CDC says, and I'm going by what the CDC says.

Quarantine rules.

by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 12:53:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I read the circular before I posted it, Jan 5, 2022, another day that will live in infamy.
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please state the title of your Ph.d. thesis and the name of your principal advisor as well as your experience in pharmaceutical, biological, or biochemical research.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't need a PhD to read CDC's public notices and collateral material.

But this remark does remind me of a Twitter disturbance in '20 erupting from a cadre of entitled PhDs (of unknown academic specialties): CALL ME DOCTOR.

To which my only response was, CALL ME MASTER.

by Cat on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 04:51:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Typo, unvaccinated are more infectious to others.

I got my PhD in infectious disease control from the University of the Internet, with pos-doc work at Google Search, Inc. Also I watched a CDC video one time.

by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 05:25:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The first job of a vaccine is to protect vaccinated individuals from hospitalisation and death. The Covid vaccines are pretty good at that.

The second job is to limit the spread and eventually create herd immunity. The Covid vaccines are mediocre at that, not least because Covid mutates quickly. But they do lower the r value, which is a win, even if they don't reduce it to zero.

Vaccination is a collective issue. No question.

The fact that the far right has weaponised vaccination hesitancy, with the result that devotees are filling up hospitals and dying - often pleading for vaccination when it's too late - should also be a clue.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 09:24:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first job of health care administration in a pandemic is to limit the transmission as much as possible. And a vaccination that is at best mediocre - against delta already useless, if you go by latest research - is a very bad choice as the main tool.

Especially if the messaging is done as wrong as it has been, at least in here. Given the at best mediocre performance of the vaccine in limiting transforming the virus, vaccinated people have - thanks to the passport - engaged in very risky behavior regarding the pandemic because they though they were safe and couldn't even transfer the disease. Many still do, even if the message is changing.

Then take into consideration that many break-trough infections in vaccinated are asymptotic, so even if they wanted to self-quarantine, they wouldn't know they should.

tldr; non-sterilizing, non-prophylactic but "merely" a therapeutic vaccine was not, isn't and will not be the way out of this pandemic. It is using the last line of defense as the first and only weapon. Just sayin'.

Btw, the news from Israel says that the fourth "booster" is useless against omicron. And elsewhere I heard (in the news, from officials) that the third vaccine gives only a few weeks worth of protection. At this point these vaccines are basically just kicking the can down the road and praying for a miracle.

Sorry about the rant. I'll face the corner now.

by pelgus on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 12:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The approach taken by China seems to have worked pretty well so far. If people start testing positive, lock everybody down.

Short term problem is this approach infringes individual freedom. Long term advantage is when a variant as transmissible as omicron but as deadly as ebola comes along, countries with strict lockdown procedures will survive while the "free" countries will lose half their population.

by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:47:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Israel has a large population of ignorant hick religious types who have large families and refuse to get vaccinated.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember pre-corona that some scientists were starting to be worried that mass tourism and the reduction of time of some long distance flights with the opening of new roads meant that the flu virus would circulate in a very intense way all the time: from the southern hemisphere in Summer and from the northern one in Winter. This was a cause of alarm.
Not to mention mass farming and the various cattle and other animals pests we've had regularly.
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 08:27:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"The Covid vaccines are pretty good at that."
I think it is a mistake to compare them.
AZ in the UK, used in majority, on an island, produces a herd immunity that cannot be achieved in places that have used multiple vaccines using different technologies.
I think the scores of countries that have used the most classical methods demonstrate that (China, UAE, Turkey, Morocco). Japan made the choice of allowing only Pfizer probably with some reasons.
In Israel and France, data show that on elderly populations, it is 50/50 between vaxxed and unvaxxed hospitalization, against related to co-morbidities.
And we'll never know if a simple vaccine such as boosting doses of vitamin d for everyone everyday would not have made the trick. Remember that fifty percent of all deaths in the EU were in care homes, i.e. if you control this from the beginning, you control a lot. But that also would mean mandatory vaccination at least for the staff, and this is something on which I am still unable to decide if I am for or against. Were the vaccines tested on longer time, or all based on classical methods, it would not be an issue.
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 12:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some might have dismissed this information last December. Many likely haven't seen the label on the bottle, and in any event the constituents of each mRNA patented vaccine (apart from "delivery platform") aren't public knowledge. Which isn't to suggest expert organic chem knowledge is required to understand prerequisite novelty in design to acquire a patent.
Where's muh patent waivers?
WHO makes interim recommendations for mixing and matching COVID-19 vaccines
EU agencies endorse mix-and-match of COVID-19 vaccines

Japan breaks ranks
LIVING OFF ebola marketing mix 'n' match UPDATE
How'd that work out?

by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 02:58:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A Simple Breakdown of the Ingredients in the COVID Vaccines

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed, that's the "delivery platform," or suspension, encapsulating the "the viral protein" (or synthetic RNA). The former is known to interested parties, the latter is not well reported.
After injection, the mRNA from the vaccine is released into the cytoplasm of the cells. Once the viral protein is made [HOW?] and on the surface of the cell, mRNA is broken down [metabolized?] and the body permanently gets rid of it[see? this is why ppl be searching for "black box warnings" and biochemical summaries exactly describing eg. waste product, bc EUA holders' reporting is faint], therefore making it impossible to change our DNA.
I must stress, I am not and have never suggested mRNA material alters cellular DNA. Rather like creation of "cancer cells", cellular DNA prescribes/transcribes mRNA transformation of normal surface structure ("binding domain") of human cells, mainly epithelial, which occur in form or another as tissue throughout the human body, into an unpredictable "pathway" of lymphatic responses to any and all antigens, including SARS-CoV-2. The mRNA mechanisms of action (MOA) said to "protect" cells is not well-understood.
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 10:41:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Comirnaty contains nucleoside modified mRNA (modRNA) encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles that deliver the modRNA into host cells. The lipid nanoparticle formulation facilitates the delivery of the RNA into human cells.12 Once inside these cells, the modRNA is translated by host machinery to produce a modified SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein antigen, which is subsequently recognized by the host immune system. Comirnaty has been shown to elicit both neutralizing antibody and cellular immune responses to the S protein, which helps protect against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection

AbsorptionNot Available

Volume of distribution Not Available

Protein binding Not Available

Metabolism Not Available
Route of elimination Not Available

Half-life Not Available

Clearance Not Available

by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 11:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a nlm.nih.gov production


12.1 Mechanism of Action
The nucleoside-modified mRNA in COMIRNATY is formulated in [INACTIVE INGREDIENTS], which enable delivery of the mRNA into host cells to allow expression of the SARS-CoV-2 S antigen. The vaccine elicits an immune response to the S antigen, which protects against COVID-19.
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 11:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
neither DailyMed nor DrugBank describe the one ACTIVE INGREDIENT, Tozinameran

which being "recobinant" RNA, should be identifiable by its genomic sequence.

by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 11:46:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 04:42:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem from day 1 has been that we are dealing with a novel corona virus which also mutates rapidly. The clinical and epidemiological implications of which were largely unknown, and we are still learning. You say are still undecided about mandatory vaccination for the staff. Our public health authorities didn't have the luxury of prevaricating for so long.

So yes, mRNA technology is new. The vaccines haven't been tested exhaustively on all sorts of demographics, pre-existing conditions, and potential drug interactions. We know little or nothing about long Covid.

In Ireland the public health advice was confused and sometimes downright wrong. Public health officials initially opposed mask mandates - saying the public wouldn't know how to wear, handle and dispose of masks properly in the first place.

Antigen testing was opposed until very recently. Now it is almost replacing PCR testing as a first line of defence - despite a widely sold brand of antigen test becoming notorious for false positives. (It ruined our extended family Christmas).

There is still a lack of emphasis on air conditioning/filtration/plasma screening ventilation systems.

But it's all very well individuals becoming virologists overnight and making conscientious decisions for themselves and their families. Public health officials and governments have to make decisions for society as a whole, and that means assessing the balance of risks. No solution is perfect.

Once you take the Chinese total lockdown solution off the table, you are talking about pandemic management, trying to reduce the overall level of harm, trying to optimise the medical capacities you have or can develop.

It's not an exact science. Its almost like fighting a war: making rushed decisions under duress which might have been different had you had months of data to consider your options.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 10:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can boost as often you want, as long as you let planes fly, you will spread and create new variants that you will reimport again.
by Tom2 on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 10:48:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And something like that may well be the end game - an annual or 6 monthly jab optimised for the latest Covid variant much like the current Flu jab - which I have never taken, but may have to re-evaluate.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 11:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the freedom to spread covid to the rest of the world of course. Enjoy!
by Tom2 on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 12:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it were possible to eliminate to Covid virus completely, then I'm all for it. We are now producing enough vaccines to inoculate the entire world, but in many places the infrastructure to transport, preserve, dispense to the entire population is lacking. Doesn't mean we should stop trying.

But failing that, unless you want an indefinite lockdown and ban on all travel we are going to have to live with a level of the disease, and the trick is to to contain it as much as possible and within health care capacity while opening up society as much as possible. Travellers have been spreading disease since forever. It's up to each country to decide how much or whether they should curtail international travel.

Hats off to Australia for expelling Djokovic. They may have made a mess of the process, but the principle that you are a guest of a foreign country and staying at their discretion stands. So no, I don't believe we have the freedom to spread covid around the world.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 08:08:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
archived repatriations
by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 11:10:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a general rule, Cat, a comment should be intelligible in its own right. Links are there to provide supporting evidence or further reading for those who want it. Your comment says nothing and your link is just to the generic newsroom page, and I haven't a clue what part of that long discussion may be of relevance to the point you want to make.

So as a general rule I ignore such comments. But I also think it is a discourtesy to our readers to splurge undigested links about the place. Say what you have to say in the comment and by all means link to a single other comment or story which supports, reinforces or expands on your point. Otherwise you are just increasing the noise to signal ratio and wasting people's time.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 11:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Travellers have been spreading disease since forever.

The link is to multiple instances, but not all instances, of repatriation flights from and between Asia, EU, and GB in the first quarter of pandemic, before "lock-downs," when quarantine and testing protocols were not encouraged or well reported.

by Cat on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 02:30:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 10:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Samoa goes into lockdown after 15 Australians test positive
The [15] infected passengers were among 73 who arrived from Brisbane on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa also said Saturday the government may cancel further flights from Australia. A scheduled flight from New Zealand on Saturday has already been postponed, according to Radio New Zealand. All the passengers were reportedly fully vaccinated and had tested negative for COVID-19 before departure [at AU port].
American Samoa [a US "possession"] also has 18 cases, all of them travelers from Hawaii on Hawaiian Airlines flights from Honolulu. The latest group of seven who tested positive arrived Jan 6. There is no lockdown in American Samoa and flights between Honolulu and Pago Pago continue on limited basis.

Omicron spreads in New Zealand, spoiling PM's wedding plans
AP ethical parameters
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 04:14:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My local pharmacy sells air purifiers which claim to kill 99.9% of all viruses using patented plasma technology to "continuously pull contaminated indoor air across internal short-exposure plasma coils, deactivating airborne microorganisms and viruses at the DNA level".

It is claimed they literally pull viruses apart at a molecular level destroying their infectivity.

This groundbreaking device uses a non-selective, rapid killing, patented plasma technology, which offers a unique, safe and scientifically proven solution to killing airborne viruses 24/7.

They have been independently tested in over 30 laboratories against MS2 Bacteriophage, a commonly used surrogate for SARS-CoV (Coronavirus), and were shown to reduce the virus by 99.99%.

Anyone know the science behind this? Is it credible? If so it seems to me such relatively inexpensive and portable devices should be installed in the air-conditioning systems of planes, cars, schools and workplaces.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 07:36:19 PM EST
University of Michigan, doesn't look like easy-to-use home device, but the article is from 2019...
by pelgus on Tue Jan 18th, 2022 at 08:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about this particular solution, but in general yes, you can filter away and/or destroy viruses. Read a paper where they had very good success with, if I recall correctly, HEPA filters + UV light.
by fjallstrom on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 01:19:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have an air filtration unit in our bedroom, primarily because our neighbor has a wood stove that causes tremendous particulate pollution throughout the neighborhood. It works very well, at least as far as can be detected by smell.

My concern is about changing the filters without shaking all the bad stuff loose.

by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:49:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DNA collected from air could revolutionize the monitoring of biodiversity
Two independent teams of researchers -- one based in Denmark and the other in the United Kingdom and Canada -- set out to collect several air samples from two European zoos: Hamerton Zoo Park in the U.K. and Copenhagen Zoo in Denmark. Their findings, published Thursday in the journal Current Biology, showed the presence of a wide range of animal species both within and outside the two zoos.
"We were even able to collect eDNA [environmental DNA] from animals that were hundreds of meters away from where we were testing without a significant drop in the concentration, and even from outside sealed buildings.
UK virus [RNA] hunting labs seek to bolster global variant network
The laboratory is one example of how British scientists have industrialized the process of genomic sequencing during the pandemic, cutting the time and cost needed to generate a unique genetic fingerprint for each coronavirus case analyzed.
Britain made sequencing a priority early in the pandemic after Cambridge University Professor Sharon Peacock identified the key role it could play in combating the virus and won government funding for a national network of scientists, laboratories and testing centers known as the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium.
That has helped slash the cost of analyzing each genome by 50% while reducing the turnaround time from sample to sequence to five days from three weeks, according to Wellcome Sanger.

Increasing sequencing capacity is like building a pipeline, according to Dr. Eric Topol, chair of innovative medicine at Scripps Research in San Diego, California. In addition to buying expensive sequencing machines, countries need supplies of chemical reagents, trained staff to carry out the work and interpret the sequences, and systems to ensure that data is shared quickly and transparently.

archived Tue Jul 13th, 2021
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 01:52:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"medical ethics" today

A pig's heart has given an ex-con a second chance. But is it ethical?

Surely, the answer depends on your understanding of ethics, which is often confused with dogmatic conduct, particularly professional and religious orthodoxy.

by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 03:51:38 PM EST
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "ethical" question seems to be mostly about whether it is ok to put an exotic organ into a human. Not much discussion of the poor pig.
by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, the pig is an ex-con.
by Cat on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 06:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
APsplainin medical pig ethics for ex-con recipients
US researchers test pig-to-human transplant in donated body corpse*
the quest to save human lives with organs from genetically modified pigs.

This time around, surgeons in Alabama transplanted a pig's kidneys into a brain-dead man -- a step-by-step rehearsal for an operation they hope to try in living patients possibly later this year.

"The organ shortage is in fact an UNMITIGATED CRISIS  and we've never had a real solution to it," said Dr. Jayme Locke of the University of Alabama at Birmingham, who led the newest study and aims to begin a clinical trial of pig kidney transplants.
After hearing this kind of research "had the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives, we knew without a doubt that that was something that Jim would have definitely put his seal of approval on," said Julie O'Hara, Parsons' ex-wife.
Hurdles remain before ["]formal["] testing in people begins, including deciding who would qualify to test a pig organ, said Karen Maschke, a research scholar at the Hastings Center who will help develop ethics and policy recommendations for the first clinical trials under a grant from the National Institutes of Health [BWAH!].

* whole-ass chapter in Washington, Medical Apartheid: The Dark History of Medical Experimentation on Black Americans from Colonial Times to the Present (2006) dedicated to Georgia, USA, medical colleges' traffick in freshly buried, emancipated "bodies" from Afro-Am cemeteries. And others on state-sanctioned experiments on imprisoned subjects and SCHIP-insured children.  
by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 05:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
aubergine "free state" ethics. Sputnik cuts to the chase.
Pig Kidneys Successfully Transplanted Into Brain-Dead Human Body
News of this development come shortly after surgeons in Maryland successfully performed a first-of-its-kind organ transplant of a genetically-modified pig heart into a human patient who was deemed too sick to qualify for a human heart.
"investigational" surgery is painless
As Locke's team reported in the American Journal of Transplantation, both kidneys survived with no signs of rejection for a little over three days, until the patient's body was taken off life support.
Porrett et al., "First ["]clinical-grade["] porcine kidney xenotransplant using a human decedent model", 20 Jan 2022
wut: "'This human preclinical model is a way to evaluate the safety and feasibility of the pig-to-non-human primate model, without risk to a living human,' Locke added."
prior research, public domain

US organ donor consent, HHS / Health Resources & Services Adminiatration (HRSA)
Donor Identification and Consent, Maryland DMV
FWIW: I'm neither a pig nor a felon, but I've ticked the box since I first got a driver's license two states and 32 years ago despite reasonable fear that few of my organs are out-the-box, so to speak, "clinical-grade" A. Now, extrapolate: When the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak, who is the injured party? Surgeons, drug manufacturers, epidemiologists, or GM pigs?

by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 08:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ethics: Who "deserves" a second chance?
Pig, pig, or ex-con? Choose one, but don't be judgmental.

by Cat on Thu Jan 27th, 2022 at 02:13:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 01:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Knock yourselves out

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 04:38:56 PM EST
Belgium today records 60,000 cases, highest number since the beginning. Despite 76 percent vaccination, 52 boosting, free testing everywhere including in train stations since early times on. The fault of the unvaxxed probably!
by Tom2 on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 09:04:51 PM EST
Correct. In the face of a virus that has high transmissibility, the lack of full vaccine coverage has led to record numbers of infections. Luckily, some governments (at the state and city levels in the US, because the Supreme Court is unabashedly partisan) are starting to enforce decent vaccination rules. NYC and DC in particular, with many other cities following.
by asdf on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 11:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US judiciary does not enforce any law.
The US judiciary is not equipped to enforce any law.

Law enforcement powers are assigned by government and consent of the governed to a different, select group of people.

by Cat on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 12:50:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since the beginning of the pandemic Belgium and Holland have had virtually the same number of infections in the population - 21-22%, and yet the death rate in Belgium is twice that of Holland. Is that due to age profile, vaccination profile, healthcare quality or what?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 10:21:10 PM EST
The Dutch with Mark Rutte have a significant undercount of Covid-19 deaths. Furthermore their policy have differed greatly ... see start of the booster campaign ... the Dutch started when Omicron had arrived at the end of November. The luck of the stupid, the Netherlands had to go into a lockdown mid December as Belgium kept business and bars/restaurants open.

The lockdown has benefited greatly to keep hospital beds and ICU occupation quite low. See my latest data ...

Present Deaths Covid-19 Selected Countries

England opens up contrary to well founded advice of SAGE.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jan 19th, 2022 at 10:56:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Belgium had for a year an interdiction of its own citizens to travel outside of the EU and very strict contact tracing (associated to free testing everywhere), all these were not in place in NL.
by Tom2 on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 10:49:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The criteria for labeling a death as "COVID" are not the same in the two countries; this was pointed out as early as 2020: Belgium is probably over-counting, The Netherlands...
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 20th, 2022 at 08:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Open source society" ?!


"Today, despite the global rollout of covid-19 vaccines and treatments, the anonymised participant level data underlying the trials for these new products remain inaccessible to doctors, researchers, and the public--and are likely to remain that way for years to come. This is morally indefensible for all trials, but especially for those involving major public health interventions."

by Tom2 on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 02:15:55 PM EST
I think the issue is more complex than is admitted in the editorial. For example,

...there are strong arguments against sharing raw data routinely. Raw data sets are large and complex, include potentially sensitive individual participant data, and are not needed for most secondary analyses of shared clinical trial data.

More comprehensive discussion.

by asdf on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 03:13:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. I do this kind of work for a living, and the issue number two in health (clinical, real world, cohort) data sharing is that it's all over the place: it has to be made sane and harmonized before doing anything with it.

Also the currently popular tools kinda requires as much data as they can for "statistically significant" finds instead of looking for the minimum data required to answer a question.

The number one issue is that data has value to research (due to the funding mechanisms) groups (and hospitals and biobanks) and no one is willing to share their data until they have squeezed every possible funding out of it. Then they're willing to pool it to squeeze out some more, but it can take months or years for the lawyers to agree on what is shared and how and who gets the credit because there is no trust.

And that's just the paper part of it, I won't start on the actual implementation of any data sharing project, which usually also takes months to sort out all issues.

by pelgus on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 03:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lublin et al., "Defining the clinical course of multiple sclerosis" (2014)
Standardized descriptions published in 1996 based on a survey of international MS experts provided purely clinical phenotypes based on data and consensus at that time, but imaging and biological correlates were lacking. Increased understanding of MS and its pathology, coupled with general concern that the original descriptors may not adequately reflect more recently identified clinical aspects of the disease, prompted a re-examination of MS disease phenotypes by the International Advisory Committee on Clinical Trials of MS.
In 2011, the Committee (now jointly sponsored by NMSS and The European Committee for Treatment and Research in MS) and other experts (The MS Phenotype Group) re-examined MS phenotypes, exploring clinical, imaging, and biomarker advances through working groups and literature searches. In October 2012, we convened to review the 1996 clinical course descriptions and determine if sufficient progress and new insights were available to recommend changes. ...
4 years later
Reich, et al., "Multiple Sclerosis," (2018)
The MS Phenotype Group has reconsidered prior MS disease course descriptors, some 16 years after their original publication. We recommend the following: ...
The Astounding Run-on Sentence
As of October 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration has approved 15 medications for modifying the course of MS: 5 preparations of interferon [!] beta; 2 preparations of glatiramer acetate; the monoclonal antibodies [!] natalizumab, alemtuzumab, daclizumab, and ocrelizumab (the first B-cell targeted therapy); the chemotherapy [!] mitoxantrone; and the small-molecule [mRNA!] oral agents fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate*, and teriflunomide. Dalfampridine* has been approved as a symptomatic therapy to improve walking speed. [start]It is beyond the scope of this article to discuss the relative benefits, risks, modes of action, and routes of administration of these various medications (though some targets are depicted in Figure 4), except to say that all are approved for relapsing-remitting MS and reduce, to various extents, the likelihood of developing new white matter lesions, clinical relapses, and stepwise accumulation of disability.[end]
boilerplate conclusion: moar "broadly conceived" research is needed.
At the same time, a renewed focus on lesion development and repair - more broadly conceived to include lesions in white matter, gray matter, and leptomeninges - should ultimately unify lines of research, particularly on the side of fluid and imaging biomarkers and clinical outcomes, which have sometimes strayed too far from the causative biology.
3 years later
* 2 drugs taken together with which I briefly had intimate personal experience 3Q2021, because neither manufacturer had reported this particular drug-drug interactions (DDI); in fact, no DDIs with monomethyl-, dimethyl-, or diroximelfumerate are published in publicly available literature or public libraries, (NIH) DailyMed and (Canada PPP) DrugBank.
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 06:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is your take on the latest claims, "MS is a virus" ?
How is that possible when some families have multiple cases?
(given the source, it must be true, uh?
by Tom2 on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 08:31:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A desperate attempt by special interest groups to lever $$ donations out of the MS patients they purport to support*... with pharma and medical device ads as well as the occasional ADL advice column for R&R noobs distracted by years of misdiagnoses or nasty interferon side-effects, possibly unpaid med insurance claims.

National MS Society featured that Harvard study of VA dependents in their monthly newsletter emailed 20 Jan 2022.

The National MS Society invested in this study as part of its ongoing research commitment to ending MS.
The Harvard team used blood samples collected to test for HIV among more than 10 million active-duty United States military personnel between 1993 and 2013. Looking for specific antibodies that signal past infection, they determined the EBV status at the time the first sample was taken, and then followed additional samples to determine the relation between EBV infection and MS onset during the period of active duty. The team identified 801 people who developed MS and 1,566 controls without MS whose samples were available.
Using a novel tool called VirScan, which screens for evidence of an immune response [antibodies] to approximately 200 viruses, they also found no links between other viruses and MS risk.
The design is trash, and the hypothesis has been hanging for years. See Reich 2018 link (above).
On the environmental side, major risk factors include geographical latitude (higher incidence in more temperate climates), which may reflect seasonal changes in sunlight exposure influencing vitamin D levels or pathogens prevalent in these regions, although a genetic contribution is possible as well. Tobacco exposure, obesity, and mononucleosis are also associated with enhanced risk for developing MS. Mononucleosis results from infection by Epstein-Barr virus in the post-pubertal population, and only a minority of people with a history of mononucleosis (and a tiny minority of all those infected with the nearly ubiquitous Epstein-Barr virus) eventually develop MS. Viruses other than Epstein-Barr have been suggested as potential causes of MS or MS-related disease activity, but none has been definitively proven. Some of these may act as molecular mimics...
The lamest entry in the genre that I've come across since a mundane MS clinical diagnosis by an opthalmologist in '97 is (not as you might suspect, exposure to certain maple tree species), B12 deficiency "mimics" MS symptoms if not CNS demyelination, must draw blood--and that was out of the mouth of the 1st neuro I'd consulted since '99... before he got my MRI in his hot hands. The 2nd neuro I consulted (2018) didn't have access to a PC to read the CD, but did prescribe vit D because I was menopausal. So there's that. The 3rd--MD, PhD--to whom I read my DDI riot act, I refer above.

The only research breaking ground in org chem is sm molecule wght (BBB) mRNA in vitro experiments to switch progenitor neurons (OLGs) on and off as well as T- and B-cells. There's also a small body of clinical trials testing metabolic anti-imflammatory MoAs.  

* I didn't subscribe to MS Society or MS Foundation at all until 2021. I'd been advised by PC and neuro case workers that these organizations could provide transpo vouchers to med appointments. That turned out to be false.

by Cat on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 12:02:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for these. I have an uncle who has MS and apparently slowed it down drastically by becoming very active (he was not before, rather a math teacher, chess player and intellectual). Now he cycles almost a thousand kilometers per year and is doing well! His sister and his mother died of MS.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 09:36:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
has entered the room
posing as differential diagnosis.
Omicron [sic] amps up concerns about ["]long COVID["] and its causes
other than SARS-Cov-2 infection, regardless of a patient's "vaccine" status, actual medical history and commensurate maintenance drug regimen, or in/out patient COVID-indicated "cocktails".
Another is that latent viruses in the body, such as the Epstein-Barr [and varicella-zoster] virus that causes mononucleosis [that causes "shingles"], are reactivated. A recent study in the journal Cell pointed to Epstein-Barr in the blood as one of four possible risk factors, which also include pre-existing Type 2 diabetes and the levels of coronavirus RNA and certain antibodies in the blood. Those findings must be confirmed with more research.

A third theory is that autoimmune responses develop after acute COVID-19.

In a normal immune response, viral infections activate antibodies [T-cell, B-cell] that fight invading virus proteins. But sometimes in the aftermath, antibodies remain ["]revved up and mistakenly attack["] normal cells. That phenomenon is thought to play a role in autoimmune diseases such as lupus and multiple sclerosis

but not cancer
by Cat on Mon Jan 31st, 2022 at 03:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Third letter down
Compulsory vaccinations
Everybody has the right to bodily integrity, but that does not mean there may not be consequences for the choices we make. Smoking and drinking can be harmful, and so are discouraged by high taxes and restrictions on when and where we can do so in public places.

Having unprotected sex while knowingly carrying a serious infection is a deliberate act harmful to others and is considered a felony in many jurisdictions. Wandering into a pub or workplace without a mask when knowingly Covid positive could attract similar sanction.

The situation becomes more nuanced if you are unvaccinated, as this merely increases the statistical probability that you could be infectious and infect others. That situation is therefore somewhere in between the two prior examples in terms of its culpability.

But not allowing the unvaccinated into crowded places where the risks of cross infection are high is no more onerous than not allowing the intoxicated, unlicenced or uninsured to drive. It is done to protect the general public from a greater risk of harm. Entering a pub or stadium is no more a human right than driving a car.

Compulsory vaccination is likely to be a counter-productive policy with little benefit when more than 90 per cent of the eligible population are voluntarily vaccinated in any case.  But placing restrictions on where the unvaccinated can go is not an impairment of their human right to bodily integrity, it is a vindication of the human rights of others to be protected from unnecessary risk of harm.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 21st, 2022 at 11:11:18 PM EST
But asking for a flights ban will get you censored!
No a word in the Western MSM about this Singapore activist recent prosecution while he was popular for other protests before.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/activist-gilbert-goh-charged-after-allegedly-sta ging-protest-near-ica
by Tom2 on Sat Jan 22nd, 2022 at 11:47:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
COVID-19: Democratic Voters Support Harsh Measures Against Unvaccinated

Probably fabricated, because Rassmussen, the messenger, and yet illustrative of profoundly deranged US American moral reasoning reflected as the free press.

by Cat on Sat Jan 22nd, 2022 at 01:14:11 AM EST
The Heartland Institute is a radical right-wing propaganda organization. This is a transparent example of painting the Democrats as pure evil to satisfy the fantasies of their right-wing audience.
by asdf on Sat Jan 22nd, 2022 at 04:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet here we are weighing a feather.
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 01:40:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 01:46:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
2nd generation vaccine production launched in SA, hardly a word in the MSM; it claims to block transmission and focus on training the reaction of the T cells
https:/www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/r3bn-invested-in-new-nantsa-vaccine-manufacturin g-hub

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-billionaire-opens-covid-cancer-vaccine-plant-in-south-africa/6403735.ht ml

by Tom2 on Sat Jan 22nd, 2022 at 05:18:42 PM EST
Important covid links at the following
by Tom2 on Sat Jan 22nd, 2022 at 08:51:01 PM EST
Some US cities are starting to come to their senses. New Orleans is first out of the gate with a student vaccination mandate.

In New Orleans, parents of children ages 5 and older are preparing for public schools to require the coronavirus vaccine beginning early next month, weeks ahead of the city's Mardi Gras celebrations.

New Orleans will be one of the first cities to enforce the vaccine requirement for young school children when the mandate takes effect Feb. 1.

by asdf on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 04:58:44 PM EST
France today:
10 Mo positive cases
400,000 new cases per day
33 Mo vaxxed + booster (total pop is 70 Mo)
by Tom2 on Sun Jan 23rd, 2022 at 05:44:33 PM EST
65,000 new cases, 1 new death. Is that believable?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 12:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's believable, to some extent. Basically because deaths lag infections by several weeks but also because defining the cause of death is much more difficult that verifying an infection.
At least here infections are usually from yesterday, hospital beds in use are partially from two day before that while deaths may take up to 10 days to end in covid statistics.
by pelgus on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 01:09:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is exactly the same kind of ratio as what has been going on elsewhere with the diffusion of omicron, check here Campbell,

you can click under his name for comments and links to the scientific articles and public data

by Tom2 on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 01:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cracks in the wall. As far as I can see and hear (on the radio), only artists and stand-up comedians dare questioning the official narrative.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/catastrophic-moral-crime-bari-weiss-bill-maher-say-quiet-part-out -loud-leftist-covid
He noted a stat from the CDC about how "78% of the people who died or went to the hospital were obese."

"So, the fact that America, the medical establishment, never even attempted to get people to live a healthier lifestyle as a response to this pandemic is a giant scandal to me"

by Tom2 on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 03:53:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably a bit late to launch a campaign for a healthier lifestyle "in response to this pandemic." That sort of education and disincentive programme (eg sugar taxes) is a long term project which should have been happening ever since obesity became  major problem.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 04:43:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would say it is never too late. Obesity is a well-known co-morbidity for flu (https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7130453) and it was mentioned by Campbell among others in relation to coronaviruses and their lethality as early as Spring 2020.

Interesting comments here
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/new-hampshire-pharmacies-could-soon-begin-dispensing-ivermectin-w ithout-doctors

by Tom2 on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 05:16:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Related numbers here
In NL, we have been told some 90% of the population had antibodies about 6 months ago already.
by Tom2 on Mon Jan 24th, 2022 at 06:33:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just because he carries the Kennedy name 🙄

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jan 25th, 2022 at 04:06:44 PM EST
He's obviously spotted a market opportunity for that brand of politics. Or is he a true anti-vaxxer believer and just plain mad? There's some dodgy genes in that there family...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 25th, 2022 at 06:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's also got a Chinese lab leak theory to complement suspicious, unregulated US Army lab leaks.
by Cat on Tue Jan 25th, 2022 at 08:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unvaxxed shielders are most at risk,
but people with previous infection should NOT be vaxxed. They actually fare slightly better than vaxxed. But France has decided that their immunity wanes after 4 months. Why?
/solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/actualites/actualites-du-ministere/article/pass-vaccinal-quels-cha ngements-a-partir-du-15-fevrier
by Tom2 on Fri Jan 28th, 2022 at 08:45:30 PM EST
Campbell is discussing this paper in the video

It makes no sense to give booster vaccination to students and teenagers who have been tested positive before.
And now that every family has or had omicron (record number of classes closed ever in France, record number of positive cases in NL), why continuing with blind mass boosting campaign?

Another issue that should be discussed is why two of the US scientists which have been most vocal against mRNA and mass vaccination are always advertising the Falungong's newspaper "Epoch Times"? Does anyone have an idea?

by Tom2 on Fri Jan 28th, 2022 at 08:55:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"La région espagnole de Catalogne a, pour sa part, décidé de mettre fin à partir de vendredi à l'obligation de présenter un passe sanitaire pour entrer dans les bars, restaurants et salles de sport, le jugeant peu efficace face à la grande contagiosité d'Omicron. « Une partie importante de la population est à nouveau susceptible d'être infectée par le virus », à cause d'Omicron, « indépendamment de son statut vaccinal ou du fait d'avoir déjà contracté la maladie », a justifié, dans un communiqué, le gouvernement régional qui suit ainsi l'avis de son comité d'experts. « En conséquence, l'efficacité de l'utilisation obligatoire du certificat Covid diminue », a-t-il ajouté." Le passe sanitaire est en vigueur pour rentrer dans les bars, restaurants et salles de sport depuis la fin du mois de novembre en Catalogne, région touristique de 7,7 millions d'habitants. Si le nombre de cas reste toujours très élevé dans la région, les hôpitaux ne sont pas aussi saturés que les autorités pouvaient le craindre dans leurs scénarios les plus pessimistes. Il y a une semaine, la Catalogne avait aussi levé le couvre-feu qui était en vigueur entre 1 heure et 6 heures du matin à Barcelone et dans une grande partie de la région depuis la fin décembre. La seule restriction encore en vigueur est la fermeture des discothèques.

Malgré un taux de vaccination élevé, avec 90,7 % de la population de plus de 12 ans entièrement vaccinée, les cas de contamination ont explosé depuis la fin décembre en Espagne, qui possède l'un des taux d'incidence les plus élevés d'Europe."
Le Monde

by Tom2 on Fri Jan 28th, 2022 at 09:38:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is not what the CDC was saying last summer.
by asdf on Sat Jan 29th, 2022 at 03:50:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WaPoo Transcript: Coronavirus Leadership During Crisis with Anthony S. Fauci, MD, 20 May 2021
DR. FAUCI: Well, I don't think we should be that concerned right now about how long they're effective. I think they will be effective long enough that we will get to the point where we are not going to be necessarily worrying about a surge.
DR. FAUCI: Well, Yasmeen, there are several questions there. I think it's first important to point out that we don't really know when we may need a booster. I mean, we're making extrapolations saying that if the level of protection at the correlative immunity starts to wane and come down to below or at a critical level and you may start to see more breakthrough infections, at that point, that would be the trigger.
Of course, you have to put it into the context as follows. When you have an infectious disease and you want to, in essence, address it appropriately, there are three possibilities.
eradicate or eliminate? What's left (not that one, the remainder)?
One, you could eradicate it. That's a very high bar because we've only eradicated one human infectious disease in our entire history, and that is smallpox, with a highly successful vaccination campaign [over 2,500 years].

The next thing is you can eliminate, and you generally do that by having certain countries, usually with good vaccination programs, essentially eliminate the presence of a particular pathogen in society.[
control. That's going to depend entirely on the success, which I believe we're going in the right direction, of the vaccine program, and the more and more people that get vaccinated--and that's the reason why we continue to push to get those people who are reluctant to get vaccinated--to, in fact, get vaccinated, because the closer we get to more and more people getting vaccinated < wipes tears > the more likely you'll LEAN TOWARDS elimination rather than just control.

by Cat on Sat Jan 29th, 2022 at 06:01:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scientists Finding 9 New Coronaviruses as Pandemic Persists
According to the researchers, a total of 132,000 RNA viruses have been found from 5.7 million biological samples with the help of a "ridiculously powerful" supercomputer built by UBC [University of British Columbia] and Amazon Web Services within the framework of the so-called Serratus Project. For comparison, only 15,000 such viruses were known before the project.
archived Sat Jan 18th, 2020

m'k. here's the plan. 1. Kill all the invincible people so vulnerable lawyers might live.
Map of global RNA sequencing data that Dr. Babaian and his team analyzed to identify new RNA viruses [Source: Serratus Project]

by Cat on Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 12:27:50 AM EST
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 12:43:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno how you do it in your corner of EU, but would like to believe US fed is not your confederate ROLE MODEL of pubic health science, while y'all ponder how best to "reform" the WHO.int.
Omicron has states rethinking 'broken' school Covid SARS-CoV-2 testing, "self-isolation," quarantine, "social distancing" and physical intimacy, risk and certainty, AIRBORNE droplets encapsulating virus, AI applications, natural and public utilities, personal privacy, private property, masked suspects, medical competence and biostatistical models, fee-for-service "health care systems", consent, variable wage labor income, real income inequality and per capita GDP, workplace safety, BIG DATA sampling errors and analysis, GDP addends, moral "impunity" and professional indemnity, cognitive psychology, k12 curricula and IQ competition, brain-body dichotomy and humoral immunity, chemistry and human physiology, quantum theories, immortality, etc.
"We can talk about the fact that we should've had rapid tests a long time ago," said Yvonne Maldonado, chair of the Committee on Infectious Diseases for the American Academy of Pediatrics and a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University.

"That ship has sailed," she said. "In the meantime, we know the principle of the way this virus works. Inherently, it's in your mouth and nose. So the more you keep your mouth and nose away from other people's mouth and nose < wipes tears >, the more you're going to prevent outbreaks. We can't let perfect [BWAH!] be the enemy of good."

you wish.
Mom with MS dies of COVID-19 after being denied vaccine, treatment: lawsuit
by Cat on Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 08:12:40 PM EST
Why do people lie?
by Cat on Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 08:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would you lie?
by Cat on Sun Jan 30th, 2022 at 08:22:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just an idea of the coming EU mess
https:/www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/02/people-unvaccinated-for-medical-reasons-call-out-pass-discrimi nation

https:/www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/02/more-than-half-a-million-vaccine-access-passes-will-expire-thi s-week
(while we know they wane after 4 months)

https:/www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/01/vaccine-rules-in-other-countries-threaten-dutch-winter-travel- plans


But if Denmark, which reopened everything, does not have a surge, the rest will follow.

by Tom2 on Tue Feb 1st, 2022 at 12:56:06 PM EST
It puzzles me to see that b at MoA is striking exactly the same cord as Nakedcapitalism on Covid. Add to this that MoA is famously pro-China whatever it is about and that only the Falungong US paper reports about people like Malone and McCullough... and I am even more puzzled.
Does anyone has some explanations for me??


by Tom2 on Tue Feb 1st, 2022 at 06:15:33 PM EST
But there is finally a balanced article on Covid in NC (with a focus on the Spanish situation), with lots of useful links about the failure of vaccine passports.


by Tom2 on Tue Feb 1st, 2022 at 06:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My vaccination passport allows me to get into local museums, and also has my driving license, fishing license, car registration, and car insurance all in a secure application.
by asdf on Wed Feb 2nd, 2022 at 04:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why is it that an NGO like Federa in Poland can order abortive pills from the Netherlands to help women but that I cannot get IVM because the government has forbid doctors to prescribe it and Merck has made an embargo on its Stromectol?

link to radio program on Federa

by Tom2 on Thu Feb 3rd, 2022 at 11:30:42 AM EST
Israel is recording its highest death toll in the last 7 days from the beginning of the epidemy
by Tom2 on Fri Feb 4th, 2022 at 09:11:18 PM EST
by Bernard (bernard) on Sat Feb 5th, 2022 at 07:40:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yesterday the excuse provided by a virologist on a major French MSM was that since hospitalizations were peaking 2 weeks ago there was a normal delay between that event and the number of deaths.
by Tom2 on Sat Feb 5th, 2022 at 08:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can someone who takes the plain to explain this kind of things " For the uninitiated, there are major risks associated with reliance on large, raw (uncorrected) data sets for retrospective (backwards in time) data sets.  The key technical term here is "confounding variables", but data entry errors (such as multiple entries for the same diagnostic event) or process changes can also introduce huge sources of bias into large data sets like this.  With raw data, it is most useful to consider any data plotting to be sort of a first draft, useful for identifying potential trends or topics that deserve more detailed analysis.  But sometimes, when the observed effect size in the raw data is very large or potentially important, alarm bells start ringing even before full analysis is completed.  And that seems to be the case with these data."
be just a conspiracy theorist?
If not, we'd better be concern with his analysis of some raw data dumped by some US army whistleblowers:
by Tom2 on Sun Feb 6th, 2022 at 09:58:00 AM EST


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