Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think the situation is getting messy.

I think Zelensky has a very weak position, given the weakness of the Ukrainian government and its dependency on the US. As an example, Biden as vice president bragged about getting the Ukrainian Attorny General fired. The debate centered on wheter he did it to protect his son, but the point that the US VP could have the Ukrainian AG fired, was as far as I know never disputed. But I don't think Zelensky is a puppet of Biden, if so he wouldn't have gone of script several times regarding the impending invasion narrative.

Given the US medias narrative of "The Russians are coming" and weapons shipments to Ukraine, the withdrawal of US and UK OSCE inspectors from the frontline, and the neo-nazi Azov battalion being hailed on US media (mostly without mentioning that it is the Azov battalion), I think if the governments wants to halt the build up of tensions, it is no longer clear that they can. The Azov battalion probably have both the means and the motive to start the war.

And yes, if Ukrainian forces attacks the rebels, Russia will most likely respond and win the military fight. This will no doubt be descirbed as an unprovoced  Russian attack on Ukraine, paving the way for more sanctions and stopping the Nord Stream 2 (that at least Biden claims he can stop), and possibly ending more gas supplies from Russia to the EU. In turn creating a captured market for US LNG, and long term weakening EU and tying it tighter to the US. In addition a war can create a new wave of refugees to strenghten the far right within the EU.

Was this the intended result? Maybe, but escalations has a tendency to take a life of their own.

And here I was thinking it was merely the ploy from "Wag the dog" with a fake war to amp up arms sales and patriotism. Seems no matter how cynical one gets, there is always more steps.

by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 10:15:22 AM EST
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