Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Egypt has launched an international wheat tender to import wheat from April 13 to 26, just 48 hours after canceling a tender that received only a single offer.

The Egyptian Supply Commodities Authority set a Feb. 28 deadline for offers for the new tender.

It canceled an international wheat tender on Thursday after receiving a single offer to import 60,000 tons of French wheat. A tender must receive more than one offer to become valid.

The country is working on a plan to import wheat from areas outside Russia and Ukraine following the outbreak of war, said Nader Saad, a government spokesman, adding that Egypt has a 5 million ton strategic stockpile of wheat.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 08:48:27 PM EST
Pre-pandemic, Egypt was RU's biggest importer. What are the odds, this year's Coalition of the Willing will be successful in persuading all EME's purchasing RU wheat to wait for mo' better justice delivery from Canada?

flow graphic: Russia, Ukraine and the global wheat supply, 2019

2021-2022 Marketing Year (MT)
PLATTS | Russia's MY 2021-22 wheat exports down 18% through Dec 2, prices dip from record high
"Turkey remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat during the year, buying 3.9 million mt as of Nov. 25, followed by Egypt at 2.8 million mt and Kazakhstan at 1.2 million mt."

US Wheat Associates | MY mid-year yields, illustrated
"USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 776 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.0 MMT from last year and 2% above the 5-year average of 757 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,064 MMT, 1% less than last year."

by Cat on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 11:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some questions (no time to look for answers sorry)

  • Is the 2021 Ukrainian harvest OK? Exports already exported? Silos targeted by the Russians? etc
  • Let's hope things settle down before the planting season (ground still frozen, nothing lost so far)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Mar 2nd, 2022 at 10:06:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
**Ukraine has seen a 27% rise in its wheat shipments so far in the marketing year 2021-22 (July to June), with exports rising to 16.1 million mt, as neighboring Russia increased its export taxes. Platts Analytics projected Ukraine's wheat exports at 22.5 million mt in MY 2021-22.

So, most of the expected exports (year to June) have been shipped, with "only" a 6 million metric ton shortfall. No global crisis there.

Optimistic version (war lasts no more than a couple of months) :

  • Some people will make some fortunes speculating in wheat (and sunflower oil)
  • Consumers will get stiffed
  • Nothing new here

Pessimistic version : no comment.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Mar 2nd, 2022 at 11:30:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't help myself. Ukrainian national symbol in short supply, Ramadan panic in India
Anxious Indian buyers, with no clarity on sunflower oil shipments out of Ukraine, are turning to crude palm oil from Malaysia to fulfill demand ahead of month-long Ramadan which starts in early April, industry sources told S&P Global Platts.

"Panic at destinations specially at India about the supply chain is resulting in buyers looking to cover oil from every source and the asked price," Vivek Pathak, managing director of India-based trading house Athena Tradewinds, which deals predominantly in sunflower oil said in a Feb. 28 note.

Last month, 500,000 mt of sunflower oil was expected to leave Ukraine and the March line up so far is also around 450,000 mt, of which India buys roughly 250,000 mt each month, Pathak said.

Buyers are currently not placing new orders for Ukrainian sunflower oil as they have not been able to track their shipments since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, sources said.

Ukraine accounts for 46% of the world's sunflower oil exports and the ongoing war represents a significant disruption to the global edible oils trade flows as the market was looking for an increase in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine to partially relieve the current tight supply in global edible oil markets, CGS-CIMB Research said Feb. 28.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Mar 2nd, 2022 at 11:24:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series