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2021-2022 Marketing Year (MT) PLATTS | Russia's MY 2021-22 wheat exports down 18% through Dec 2, prices dip from record high "Turkey remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat during the year, buying 3.9 million mt as of Nov. 25, followed by Egypt at 2.8 million mt and Kazakhstan at 1.2 million mt."
US Wheat Associates | MY mid-year yields, illustrated "USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 776 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.0 MMT from last year and 2% above the 5-year average of 757 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,064 MMT, 1% less than last year."
**Ukraine has seen a 27% rise in its wheat shipments so far in the marketing year 2021-22 (July to June), with exports rising to 16.1 million mt, as neighboring Russia increased its export taxes. Platts Analytics projected Ukraine's wheat exports at 22.5 million mt in MY 2021-22.
So, most of the expected exports (year to June) have been shipped, with "only" a 6 million metric ton shortfall. No global crisis there.
Optimistic version (war lasts no more than a couple of months) :
Anxious Indian buyers, with no clarity on sunflower oil shipments out of Ukraine, are turning to crude palm oil from Malaysia to fulfill demand ahead of month-long Ramadan which starts in early April, industry sources told S&P Global Platts. "Panic at destinations specially at India about the supply chain is resulting in buyers looking to cover oil from every source and the asked price," Vivek Pathak, managing director of India-based trading house Athena Tradewinds, which deals predominantly in sunflower oil said in a Feb. 28 note. Last month, 500,000 mt of sunflower oil was expected to leave Ukraine and the March line up so far is also around 450,000 mt, of which India buys roughly 250,000 mt each month, Pathak said. Buyers are currently not placing new orders for Ukrainian sunflower oil as they have not been able to track their shipments since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, sources said. Ukraine accounts for 46% of the world's sunflower oil exports and the ongoing war represents a significant disruption to the global edible oils trade flows as the market was looking for an increase in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine to partially relieve the current tight supply in global edible oil markets, CGS-CIMB Research said Feb. 28.
"Panic at destinations specially at India about the supply chain is resulting in buyers looking to cover oil from every source and the asked price," Vivek Pathak, managing director of India-based trading house Athena Tradewinds, which deals predominantly in sunflower oil said in a Feb. 28 note.
Last month, 500,000 mt of sunflower oil was expected to leave Ukraine and the March line up so far is also around 450,000 mt, of which India buys roughly 250,000 mt each month, Pathak said.
Buyers are currently not placing new orders for Ukrainian sunflower oil as they have not been able to track their shipments since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, sources said.
Ukraine accounts for 46% of the world's sunflower oil exports and the ongoing war represents a significant disruption to the global edible oils trade flows as the market was looking for an increase in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine to partially relieve the current tight supply in global edible oil markets, CGS-CIMB Research said Feb. 28.
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