**Ukraine has seen a 27% rise in its wheat shipments so far in the marketing year 2021-22 (July to June), with exports rising to 16.1 million mt, as neighboring Russia increased its export taxes. Platts Analytics projected Ukraine's wheat exports at 22.5 million mt in MY 2021-22.

So, most of the expected exports (year to June) have been shipped, with "only" a 6 million metric ton shortfall. No global crisis there.

Optimistic version (war lasts no more than a couple of months) :

• Some people will make some fortunes speculating in wheat (and sunflower oil)
  
• Consumers will get stiffed
  
• Nothing new here