There are Twitter rumours that Putin is ill, possibly terminally (probably Parkinson's, perhaps also cancer, some possibility of dementia) and is on a confusing cocktail of drugs.

Speculatively: we know that Putin considers the fall of the Soviet Union the worst event in his life. If he is on a mission to undo that and he has limited time left, his ability to assess outcomes rationally won't be good.

Retrospectively the signs were certainly there, from his enthusiastic support for innovation in Russia's nuclear forces, to his upgrading of Russia's civil defence system, to his promotion of cyberwar and especially infowar and subversion of the UK, EU, and US, and his previous actions in the Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya, and elsewhere.

The suggestion that this is somehow NATO's fault is the standard DARVO you'd expect from a bully. NATO has never been likely to launch a first strike or invasion of Russia without provocation.

US policy elsewhere since 2001 has been an utter catastrofuck in every possible way - except for the defence contractors who benefited from it financially.

But it's been based on invading smaller petrostates and "deterring socialism" in South America (and the UK.) Not on attacking rival superpowers who aren't a pushover.

So - we're in big trouble. Putin is an angry paranoid kook with a superpower's armed forces and the largest collection of nuclear weapons on the planet.

He has fantasies of rewriting history, based on a vendetta that is very personal to him. And he's in a hurry.

I will be very relieved indeed if we're all still here two weeks from now.