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the European countries will have to rely more on energy resources from the US or the energy providers it controls, although at a higher price, binding their economies closer to it.

I don't believe that to be true (need to see some numbers). The massive expansion of LPG in recent years, not only from the US, has created a perfectly fungible and much more competitive market, as far as I can see (somebody please correct me if that is not the case). Putin will have no difficulties selling his gas eastward, Europe can get tankers from the middle east and the US, zero sum game. Energy prices are high because of rising demand (and producers clutching the throttle), but that can be fixed... Probably by massive demand destruction.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Feb 25th, 2022 at 11:34:12 AM EST
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I don't think that is strictly true. Last I heard any interconnection between the gas fields in western Russia towards the east where still a decade off.
by generic on Fri Feb 25th, 2022 at 11:55:20 AM EST
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Gazprom said in a statement it planned to increase gas exports to China to 48 bcm per year, including via a newly agreed pipeline that will deliver 10 bcm annually from Russia's Far East.

Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021.
[...]
Gazprom said in a statement it planned to increase gas exports to China to 48 bcm per year, including via a newly agreed pipeline that will deliver 10 bcm annually from Russia's Far East.

I may be wrong, but given that they also deliver LNG by rail, I don't think the non-interconnection between Siberian and Caucasian fields is a huge issue.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Feb 25th, 2022 at 12:51:28 PM EST
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PLATTS | , 2 Dec 2019, because that's where the NEW money is headed
The 5 Bcm/year of gas supply is estimated to account for around 1.6% of China's total gas supply estimates of 316 Bcm in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics and China's National Development and Reform Commission. Once it reaches full capacity of 38 Bcm/year in 2022-23, it would account for around 9.5% of China's total gas supply estimates of 402 Bcm for 2022.

"By 2023, nearly 40% of Chinese gas demand growth will be met through Russian gas from Power of Siberia. With global LNG markets banking on Chinese demand growth to sustain new projects, Russia's pipeline and LNG pincer move on Asia does give reason for pause," said S&P Global Platts Analytics senior LNG analyst Samer Mosis.

This will make Russia one of the major natural gas suppliers to China in the future, besides Australia and Turkmenistan. Australia and Turkmenistan are currently the top two natural gas suppliers to China, sending 22.8 million mt or31.4 Bcm, and 20.2 million mt or 27.8 Bcm in the first 10 months of this year, Platts' calculation based on data from the Chinese customs showed.

The dead money is circling the Greater Middle East drain. I bet, EU's new best friend Qatar knows that. KSA certainly does, to judge by diversification of its refining bidness in the run up to ARAMCO IPO, o wait, 11 Dec 2019.

by Cat on Sat Feb 26th, 2022 at 03:03:33 PM EST
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Putin will have no difficulties selling his gas eastward, Europe can get tankers from the middle east and the US, zero sum game.

Not immediately, no:

For the first part, the Russian gas pipeline infrastructure - crucial for deliveries - is still, to the majority of its capacity, directed towards Europe, not China. Pipelines have been built in Siberia and others may follow, but the capacity is not there just yet.

For the second part, I've read from some big cheese in an EU energy corporate (probably Total), that Europe doesn't have enough capacity at its LNG terminals at the different ports to switch overnight from pipeline delivered gas to tanker delivered LNG. Here too, it will take time. Energy infrastructures are slow moving.

by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Feb 25th, 2022 at 11:55:21 AM EST
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