Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Current polling : Rather than giving numbers, I suggest that those who are interested take a look at one of the numerous aggregators of polls.

Because the shape of the curves are ... interesting, making the result of the first round pretty clear, but the actual numbers rather obscure.

Contexte (independent journalism site)

They all tell the same story : Macron heading down, Le Pen and Mélenchon heading up.

And the lines are pretty steep, meaning :

  • Le Pen might overtake Macron on Sunday (but materially that changes nothing, she still loses the second round)
  • Mélenchon might overtake Le Pen, if :
  1. the residual vote for the other left candidates (Greens, Communists) collapses further (both are pointing downward because they are already leaking votes to Méluche)
  2. something bad happens to Le Pen.

A Mélenchon/Macron run-off is a very different animal to a Macron/Le Pen run-off; in particular, for the effects on the subsequent legislative elections.

But Macron wins, in all cases.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 02:01:04 PM EST

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