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First results (estimates):

Macron 28.1%
Le Pen 23.3%
Mélenchon 20.1%
Zemmour 7.2%
Pécresse 5%
Jadot 4.4%
Lassalle 3.3%
Roussel 2.7%
Dupont-Aignan 2.3%
Hidalgo 2.1%
Arthaud 0.8%
Poutou 0.7%

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:06:29 PM EST
Macron's lead over Le Pen (almost 5 percentage points) higher than forecasted.

Mélenchon's was real, but not enough to get to the 2nd round. This will be a Macron-Le Pen re-match of 2017.

Two main parties have totally sunk:

  • Les Républicains (Pécresse): beaten by Mélenchon and by Zemmour (Pétainist). Sarkozy refused to support her and is said to be negotiating with Macron (the irresistible smell of hot soup cooking on the stove).

  • The Socialists descent to hell continues unabated: Hidalgo has been beaten not only by the Communists (Roussel) but also by Lassalle (no real party) and Dupont-Aignan (extreme right).

Also, as much as the Greens have done rather well for the municipal elections two years ago, the presidential one is really not their thing. The fact there were so many left wing candidates didn't help either.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 4.7% for Jadot really sucks... the Greens only ever broke the 5% threshold once in the Presidentials (which is an election which is contrary to our every principle, but that we need to participate in) ... and could really use the public funding.

And I really regret voting for him in the Green primary. He won 51/49 in the second round against radical ecofeminist Sandrine Roussel, who might have made the breakthrough... We'll never know.
And I fell for Mister Electable.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 08:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mélenchon is doing quite a bit better than in the polls, isn't he?
by generic on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep: there was a visible upward trend during the last week, but couldn't predict where it would end; now, we know.

Also suspect a lot of "tactical voting": Mélenchon was the only left wing with a smidge of a chance to edge Le Pen out of the second round and many left voters gave up on their candidates and voted Mélenchon instead.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:30:18 PM EST
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A real pity that it didn't seem to work out. Here's to another five years of miserable slow or rapid decline.
by generic on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Revised estimates:

Macron 28.5%
Le Pen 23.6%
Mélenchon 20.3%

Pécresse 4.8%

Note: the 5% threshold is important. Candidates who do not reach it won't get their campaign expenses reimbursed by the state election fund.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:27:27 PM EST
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Yeah Zemmour's party will get a shitload of public funding for his 8%, and will instantly be a power broker on the right... dragging what's left of the Repuglicans (who may be very broke indeed) even further right. For example.

Sarkozy may make a comeback; he would be welcomed as a saviour for what used to be the mainstream right (which is the MAJOR casualty of this election). However, this time around, Sarko won't be arriving with suitcases of dollars from Libya to wipe the party's debts...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 07:54:40 PM EST
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