Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
First Preference votes

Sinn Féin 29.0%  +1.1% since 2017
Democratic Unionist Party 21.3% -6.7%
Alliance Party 13.5%  +4.5%
Ulster Unionist Party 11.2%  -1.7%
Social Democratic & Labour Party 9.1% -2.9%
Traditional Unionist Voice 7.6% +5.1%
Green Party 1.9% -0.4%
Aontú 1.5% +1.5%
People Before Profit 1.1% -0.6%
Others 3.7%

In summary:
Sinn Fein exceeded expectations and increased its vote.
The DUP did better than polling had indicated but still lost 6.7% of heir vote
The Alliance Part did worse than polling had indicated but still grew their vote and seat numbers substantially
The Ulster Unionist Party continued its long decline and may even fail to have their leader re-elected.
The Social Democrat and Labour Party was squeezed between the rising formally non-aligned Alliance Party and Sinn Fein.
The hard line TUV tripled its vote but failed to win any more seats because no one else will transfer lower preference votes to them.
The Green party lost it's two seats to the Alliance "surge".
Aontú, a new conservative catholic anti-abortion party barely registered and got no seats.
The left wing People before profit party's vote declined but they may hold their seat in West Belfast.

I will post a comment on seat numbers when these are finalised later today.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 7th, 2022 at 11:40:05 AM EST
What does it imply with regard to the GFA?

Are Sinn Fein  and the DUP supposed to form the new executive?
What then, if the DUP does refuse?

by Bernard (bernard) on Sat May 7th, 2022 at 06:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In theory a new executive can't be formed unless both SF nominate a first minister, and the DUP nominate a deputy first minister - as both are supposed to do as the largest parties in the nationalist and unionist camps. That is why the positions are actually co-equal, one can't do anything without the other.

The DUP have said they will refuse to do so until the "protocol is sorted out". They have oscillated between saying it has to be got rid of entirely, and saying it has to be reformed, but have never been specific as to what reforms would satisfy them.

They will come under a lot of pressure to form an executive as the vast majority of voters want the Executive to be formed and to function effectively. So they risk losing more support by holding all of N. Ireland to ransom over an issue which is actually a matter between the EU and UK.

If they don't form an executive within 6 months new elections may be called which could be very damaging for them. However if the EU make concessions too quickly the run the risk of being rejected outright.

So a expect a slow war of attrition, with the DUP expecting Boris to act unilaterally to dig them out of a hole of their own making. Who knows what Boris will do?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 7th, 2022 at 09:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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