Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
That was literally what was completely unacceptable before because Ukraine is a sovereign country and the open door policy of NATO is non-negotiable. It's basically Minsk2. Before the war there was a pretty strong "anti-capitulation" movement that forced Zelensky to abandon his deescalation policy, despite being elected on that platform. And I don't think the war has made the Ukrainian far-right more chill. It's not that long ago that they shot one of their negotiators.
And then there is of course the question of why the US would accept that settlement. As things stand NATO got another shot at life, the Europeans are buying the MIC's (barely) flying golden turkeys like their lives depend on it and will find it nearly impossible to not get sucked into the US-China conflict. Even the fracking mafia is save for now. A negotiated settlement risks that so I really don't see the balance of forces in the US going for that. Can they stop the Ukrainians from accepting a settlement? I'd argue that they can. IMF loans are what's keeping the lights on currently, for as long as there is an active conflict the military support of the US is critical and they have been training the armed forces for years.
Then there is of course the question of whether the Russians would accept such a settlement now and honestly I don't think so. The US is almost certainly overstating Russian losses, but they are still going to be have been substantial so the internal logic is going to be: get something that can be sold as a win or escalate. As far as I can tell Russia is still fighting largely with its peace-time army so there should be quite a lot of room for further escalation if the military results aren't satisfactory, even if it would be politically risky. So a settlement the Russians would accept is probably going to be worse than Minsk2 or very far off.
by generic on Tue May 10th, 2022 at 10:20:37 PM EST
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