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What I meant was that the suggestion we could offer the Russians "Finlandization" for Ukraine was treated as deeply unserious in the western media and angrily shouted down by politicians. Sovereignty and all that. I am, of course, convinced that the material realities are very different. And yes, the war is certainly costly for Russia, but they also seem to have switched to a more careful, artillery focused approach and the sanctions are unlikely to go away in the short term, no matter what actions they take. The USSR planned for WW3, it's unlikely they are going to run out of artillery shells after a few months. My point isn't that the Russians should continue the offensive, but that they can and it's probably easier to do so than to stop at this point.
Also a big question is still the Ukrainian armed forces. We really have no idea in what state of the regulars fighting in the south and east are. The information is highly controlled. I don't think we'd have a lot of early warning if they started to collapse.
by generic on Wed May 11th, 2022 at 06:49:29 AM EST
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