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The problem with the "Finlandisation" thesis is that the EU (and, arguably, the US) were unable to transgress that frontier : to explicitly bargain with Russia over the heads of the Ukrainian government.

Putin has that singular advantage, that he is not bound by any notions of international legality, and decided to create facts on the ground (he has made appallingly poor use of that advantage)

Currently, the Ukrainian army is pushing the Russians back to the border in the Kharkiv region, but losing ground, with occasional counter-attacks, in the Donbass
A Georgian think-tank updates every few days, using open sources

I've no idea how long they can hold out, or whether better hardware can give them the advantage.
The closest analogy I can think of to the current situation is the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted for eight years.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 12th, 2022 at 08:14:05 AM EST
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Of course the US can bargain with Russia over the Ukrainians head. Whatever would prevent them? The Europeans probably can't, for the simple reason that they seem unable to keep agreements against US opposition. Just look at the Iran deal, the US blew it up and despite all the grumbling from the EU the sanctions returned.
by generic on Fri May 13th, 2022 at 11:20:08 AM EST
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Don't get too excited about the US. We have a significant crowd that wants to expand the "states' rights" argument into a "federation of independent states" system. The EU might find itself negotiating with Texas or Indiana at some point.
by asdf on Fri May 13th, 2022 at 02:16:18 PM EST
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